Predictions for the New Year

Published December 31, 2008 @ 04:31PM PT

And, finally, a few last-minute predictions for the New Year:

1. The Toyota Hilux will continue to be the favored vehicle of militias the third world-over.

2. Congo will continue to set the pace when it comes to warlord fashions, thanks in no small part to General Laurent Nkunda and his silver eagle-topped cane.

3. Neither the Taliban in Afghanistan nor the Shabab in Somalia will do much to promote gender equality. Unless, of course, your idea of gender equality involves burning girls' schools.

4. And, speaking of conflicts, aid agencies will continue to refer to crises in the most apocalyptic terms possible.

5. I, too, will proudly do my part.

6. At the same time, most aid workers will continue to be sent to places like Afghanistan, Congo, Darfur and Somalia without adequate security training. Many without any security training at all. (And now gracefully stepping down from that particular soap-box.)

7. The number of reports, analysis, evaluations, lessons-learned and recommendations about the cluster approach, the Humanitarian Coordinator system, CAP, CERF, CHF, DCPSF, DDR, DRCPF, LRF, MDTFs, PRTs, R2P, SRS-FF, etc etc. will only increase. Because, after all, consultants need to eat, too.

8. There will be more devastating storms next year than last. Which will include massive flooding in the Caribbean, or perhaps Bangladesh. Then again, predicting flooding in Bangladesh is a bit like predicting the sun rising in the east.

9. And droughts, more droughts. So, probably not the best of times to buy real estate in the Sahel.

10. The meek will not inherit the earth, at least not anytime soon, or at least not in Afghanistan or Zimbabwe, Somalia or Sudan. Which means that humanitarian relief will continue to be very much a growth industry.

And through it all, aid workers will continue to live and work in the worst places in the world, often for little pay, doing what they can for those most in need.

A very happy New Year to all.

PS - as Mr. Easterbrook says, all predictions wrong or your money back.

[Image from www.chrisrue.com]

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Comments (4)

People, who's sponsoring Change.org? Don't get me wrrong, II care very much about what's going on in the third world but, what about U.S.? Did I miss it or did no one post anything about Humanitarian Relief for victims of Hurricanes, Wiildfires, etc.and crime that people won't speak out even anonomously because they are intimidated?
Are we going to let the celebrities do everything? We electeed Obama because he promised change here in U.S. and it seems like posts here are about rest of world like the news media does.

Posted by mary rizzo on 01/01/2009 @ 07:35AM PT
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Mary,

Thanks for the question -- just to confirm, Humanitarian Relief explicitly focuses on humanitarian disasters outside the US; other change.org blogs focus on US-based issues.

Michael

Posted by Michael Bear on 01/01/2009 @ 01:16PM PT
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Is this a budget issue, or do the aid groups not want to be misidentified as "combatants"? Having served in some of the places, my sense is that the Taliban (for instance) doesn't care how you define yourself; they see aid workers as part of the enemy force. If I were deployed for one of these NGOs I should hope to have at least basic self-defense capability to deter opportunistic attacks. I don't see any conflict with carrying a pistol or carbine while doing humanitarian work - defensive driving training would help too.

[At the same time, most aid workers will continue to be sent to places like Afghanistan, Congo, Darfur and Somalia without adequate security training. Many without any security training at all.]

Posted by John Robson on 01/03/2009 @ 06:46AM PT
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John,

Many apologies about taking so long to respond -- and, in my opinion, it's both. There's certainly a budget issue; or, more accurately, a large number of NGOs haven't yet priorized spending on security issues, in terms of training and even some basic precautions.

Beyond that, though, NGOs are -- justifiably -- concerned about taking any actions which would further blur the lines that have traditionally separated humanitarian actors from others, like the military. Most NGO security is based on the idea of acceptance; that security comes from earning the trust of communities where we work.

That said, this is clearly breaking down in certain places, like Afghanistan and Somalia. (As you point out, the Taliban doesn't particularly care how aid workers define themselves.) There is -- or at least was -- an argument about whether this state of affairs results from actions taken by the US government and military early in the war, including Powell's comments about NGOs being "force multipliers". Either way, it doesn't change the fact that today acceptance alone isn't sufficient as a security strategy in certain conflicts.

Still, NGOs are reluctant to take any actions which would blur this distinction even further; hence the reluctance to engage armed guards, much less carry weapons.

Posted by Michael Bear on 01/12/2009 @ 07:21PM PT
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Michael has worked for NGOs in Afghanistan, across east and central Africa, and Iraq. Prior to going overseas, he worked on a project providing assistance to the United Nations on the application of International Humanitarian Law to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.