Probably Time to Start Worrying About Natural Disasters*

Published October 05, 2009 @ 01:02PM PT

*Especially if you live in a low-lying coastal area. Or a developing nation. Or both.

Any week in which a tsunami is only the fourth deadliest natural disaster should probably serve as a bit of a warning sign. Unfortunately, all the excitement of the past few days -- earthquakes, typhoons, floods, a tsunami, and a massive drought -- isn't that much of a surprise. Granted, it was a surprise to those involved, but the overall number of natural disasters has been steadily increasing for decades.

According to one UN estimate, the number of natural disasters has doubled over the past two decades, from roughly 200 to 400 natural disasters per year.

The blog Good Intentions Are Not Enough points to three causes for the dramatic increase in the number and humanitarian impact of such disasters: environmental degradation, population growth and climate change.

Last year, a total of 36 million people were displaced by sudden onset natural disasters, twenty million of whom were affected by natural disasters related to climate change, such as droughts, hurricanes and floods. (Earthquakes accounted for much of the balance.)

The World Bank helpfully estimates the cost of mitigation alone as high as $400 billion per year for twenty years. And that's just in the developing world.

Now, you ask, how much is actually available? The fine folks at IRIN calculate that there's currently a total of $23.249 billion available for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the developing world, adding together all existing financing mechanisms and funding.

So, ummm, perhaps not the best of times to invest in that time-share in Bangladesh.

For more information see this resource page on the humanitarian impact of climate change.

[Photo of a landslide triggered by a tropical storm in the Philippines from susancorpuz90's photostream on flickr - Creative Commons, Attribution]

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Comments (5)

In what way is population growth a cause of natural disasters? What the Good Intentions blogger meant to say, I think, is that population growth accounts in part for the increased natural-disaster casualties. (I also don't think that climate change is responsible for earthquakes (and thus tsunamis). I'll give benefit of the doubt to droughts, floods and typhoons, however.)

So. I still want to know what caused the 100% increase of natural disasters in 20 years. My intuition says it's largely better monitoring, and therefore a question of definition, and attention. I'm all for publicizing the plight of the have-nots around the world, but I get twitchy when someone tries to paste a bad-thing label onto an unrelated bad thing. Makes us all look bad.

Posted by E E on 10/05/2009 @ 02:38PM PT
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Excellent point - I imagine it's a combination of improved reporting and more climate-related catastrophes (floods, storms, etc etc.)

Posted by Michael Bear on 10/05/2009 @ 04:29PM PT
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Changed the text above slightly, to reflect the point you made about how population growth didn't cause the increase of natural diasters, but does impact the number of casualties, etc.

Posted by Michael Bear on 10/06/2009 @ 09:46AM PT
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Just discovered this blog, seems really thorough and informative. I work with a int development charity and our partners in South East Asia are under a lot of pressure. I work with HelpAge International and we find that often older people are pushed to one side when it comes to emergency responses and disaster relief. We're also part of the DEC appeal, so that will help but as you said about the World Bank figures, so much more is needed...

If anyone is interested, please have a look at our staff's posts from the Philippines and Vietnam www.helpage.org/blogs/

Posted by sarah marzouk on 10/07/2009 @ 07:06AM PT
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Sarah - thanks for the kind words, and the link

Posted by Michael Bear on 10/07/2009 @ 12:48PM PT
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Michael has worked for NGOs in Afghanistan, across east and central Africa, and Iraq. Prior to going overseas, he worked on a project providing assistance to the United Nations on the application of International Humanitarian Law to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.