War and Peace

Rally Behind Palestine's Abbas, Israel's Best Hope

Published November 08, 2009 @ 02:37PM PT

Palestinian President Mahmoud "Abu Mazen" Abbas has reached the apex of his value to the Middle East peace process. He knows it and he's betting everything he has. By threatening to quit.

This week Abbas, the moderate Fatah party candidate who succeeded Yassir Arafat as head of the Palestinian authority in 2004 and is the US government's most consistent partner in the West Bank, has announced that largely due to Israel's persistent refusals to halt all construction in West Bank settlements, that he might not run for President in January. Say what?

From a pro-Israel viewpoint, this may appear like Abbas is playing a political game, bluffing, to try to earn concessions before potentially facing down a hardline, uncooperative Hamas about an alreadly delayed election. Probably true, and aggrevating. But given the alternative candidates available for the Palestinian presidency, this writer strongly encourages participants in the peace process to consider the advantages of conceding to Abbas' slightly painful demands versus losing him, and the peace process with him.

Even though militant Hamas which opposes Israel's existence may boycott the election, even the potential replacement candidates for Abbas in Fatah are risky. [For background and an election guide, see my second post today, "A Crash Course in Palestinian Presidential Politics."]

Consider joining me in calling on the Obama Administration, Secretary Clinton, and the Congressional Foreign Relations Committees through petitions from your workplaces or colleges to demonstrate to Israel how beneficial it can be to keep Abbas in the Presidency, the Palestinian election, and through that in the peace talks at least until a viable alternative Fatah successor is found. Keep Abbas! As stone-like and intractable as some consider him, he's the best of available options for Palestine's future - and the least risky option for Israel's security.

[Photo: Election streamers in old town Nablus, West Bank, Daniel J Gerstle.] 

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Comments (9)

  1. Jeff Rigsby

    Hmm. Not sure I agree on this one.

    The best comment I've seen so far on Abbas' decision has come from Nathan Brown, in a guest post on the "Foreign Policy" blog of Marc Lynch (formerly Abu Aardvark):

    http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/10/26/brown_asking_the_wrong_questions_about_palestinian_elections

    Money quote: "The chance of the elections being held as decreed is virtually nil—Israeli permission is needed for polling in Jerusalem; Hamas’s participation is needed in Gaza. Neither is likely, and for both Israel and Hamas to decide to cooperate is unimaginable in current circumstances. ... It is simply the wrong time to be asking questions about Palestinian elections."

    Apart from the fact that Abbas' announcement looks pretty meaningless in this context, I think it's also important to keep an eye on the internal dynamics inside Gaza, where Hamas is now under pressure from the AQ-affiliated group Jund Ansar Allah (Soldiers of the Companions of God). Jund Ansar Allah has been involved in armed clashes with the Hamas authorities at least since June, leading most recently to the siege of a Gaza mosque in mid-August in which the group's leader and a number of other people were killed:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jund_Ansar_Allah

    It's worth noting that Hamas has accused Fatah (under Abbas' leadership) of supplying weapons to this group in an effort to destabilize the government of Gaza. There's no particular reason to trust what Hamas says, but it wouldn't be surprising either. During the 1980s the Israelis gave financial support to Palestinian Islamist groups -- the predecessors of Hamas itself -- in an effort to split the resistance to Israel and undermine the secular leadership of the PLO. It's hard to believe Abbas doesn't remember how effective this strategy turned out to be.

    Even if Abbas hasn't been arming Al-Qaeda's allies in Gaza, this does suggest that putting all our eggs in the Fatah basket would be a mistake for the Obama administration.What the clashes between Hamas and Jund Ansar Allah really show, I think, is that you can't run a functioning government based on fanatical rhetoric alone. When you do that, you're simply opening yourself to attack from other groups willing to claim that you're not extreme enough -- and if the Hamas leadership has any sense, they may realize the implications for their own strategy going forward.

    By lifting the economic blockade against Gaza and showing some willingness to deal with Hamas under the right circumstances (they did win a free election, remember), the US has some chance of steering Hamas in a more moderate direction and establishing real two-party politics in Palestine.

    Treating Fatah as the only hope for peace, on the other hand, would essentially put Washington at the mercy of Abbas' illegitimate regime, and bolster the argument that the US has never really cared about Arab democracy in the first place.

    The Israelis have already made the wrong decision on this point, and it's up to Obama to make sure the US doesn't blindly follow their lead.

    (For more background see the Jund Ansar Allah coverage on www.jihadica.com, one of the best analytical sites on salafi-jihadi movements in Palestine and elsewhere)

    Posted by Jeff Rigsby on 11/09/2009 @ 06:47AM PT

  2. Daniel J Gerstle

    Thanks, Jeff. You offer very important angles here, particularly introducing JAA, but I think you're addressing different points than I am.

    These elections might go ahead even if postponed again. Whether it's January or October, I still don't think Hamas is going to participate, so there will be a sloppy vote in which Fatah gets to pick the winner. And as long as it's going to be this kind of pseudo-election, who should the Palestinians who do participate rally for?

    If it's not Abbas, it may end up being Barghouti running from his prison cell. If Barghouti wins, that could mean a five year delay or more on any potential for compromise solutions with Israel.

    On Hamas, I've thought that maybe the Obama Administration should open talks with Hamas. It's virtually impossible to provide effective aid in Gaza beyond handouts without having some form of relationship. After all, the US has relations now with several former terror sponsors including the Iraqi Dawa Party, not to mention the Sadrists even when they were firing rockets at American troops.

    But Hamas really is a special case. Even as lefty and democracy-now as I am, often I think there are occasions when a party forfeits its election win. And that's any case in which those who win currently use the pulpit to preach not only hate and encourage violence (as arguably many governments do) but pre-meditated murder (specifically killing civilians due to their ethnic backgound).

    I separate here the good people of Gaza who just needed a government that functions from the fanatics in the party's back room. Yes, JAA is frightening and even worse. I don't believe yet that Fatah would have anything to do with a group like that.

    The US could open the door to talks with them, but they would not then suddenly open the door to talks with Israel. Anyway, I'm still undecided on how I would recommend approaching Hamas. But that's not the point of this post here.

    The post here is about what to recommend, given Hamas boycotts, given the election goes ahead, and given there's a chance Abbas will change his mind. If the election does go on withotu Abbas, despite sourness about its legitimacy, perhaps Nasser al Kidwa, former UN representative, is the next best option (see my second post of the same day). Again, the point here is not about the legitimacy of Palestinian democracy, it's about who to encourage participants to vote for in the West Bank given it goes ahead anyway.

    Posted by Daniel J Gerstle on 11/09/2009 @ 11:58AM PT

  3. Reply to thread
  4. Nadir Q

    Was it Abbas' refusal to push the Goldstone report that makes him Israel's friend? Or was it his creation of armed thugs that attack peaceful demonstrations against the occupation? Or was it his attempted coup against the elected government of Hamas that makes Israelis giddy?

    Either way, despite all everything he's done for Israel, he has got nothing to show for it. He recognizes Israel, clamps down on dissent, but can't even get a settlement concession out of Netanyahu.

    Gotta love it.

    Posted by Nadir Q on 11/09/2009 @ 11:34AM PT

  5. Daniel J Gerstle

    Abbas is definitely a problematic leader and has not won over the people. But given the goals of finding a peaceful solution, who would be a better option to fill his shoes?

    Those more willing to unify the Palestinians (Barghouti, even Hamas) will demand Israel move backwards, not only freezing construction and submitting to war crimes trials, but abandoning West Bank settlements and opening the borders for Palestinian workers. I would agree with these demands in theory, but they will give Israel cause to leave the negotiation table.

    It's a no win scenario, where the choice isn't about who is the best leader, but who is least bad option. Who would you recommend?

    Posted by Daniel J Gerstle on 11/09/2009 @ 12:14PM PT

  6. Reply to thread
  7. Nadir Q

    It depends on what you mean by peace. Abbas and Bibi's vision of a Palestinians state completely dependent and submissive to Israel, vis a vis it's border, water, and land rights is simply untenable and unjust.

    The reality is that it's Israel that needs a two state solution more than the Palestinians, they are the ones who care about demographics and ethnic hegenomy. And yet, the continued settlement expansion and the demolitions of Arab houses pretty much ensures that a two state solution will never come about. Which really leaves two options for Israel in the near future: either the complete ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population or a one state solution. Palestinians recognize this, heck even Israelis like Olmert recognize it. Abbas is a relic of the failed Olso process, one which is now dead.

    We should all be cheering the end of Mahmoud Abbas. Was he good for Israel? Sure, he was a good lackey, no one would deny that. But was he good for peace and was he able to deliver a single concession from Israel? 

    Nada.

     

    Posted by Nadir Q on 11/09/2009 @ 12:32PM PT

  8. Nadir Q

    I do have to wonder, Dan, why you titled this as "Israel's best hope", as if Palestinian concerns and aspirations aren't even a consideration for you. I honestly was expecting this post to be satirical when I opened it, just kept waiting for the punchline. I'm simply baffled by the way you choose to frame this issue.

    Posted by Nadir Q on 11/09/2009 @ 01:23PM PT

  9. Daniel J Gerstle

    After reading my first three posts here on Palestinian issues, you have clear evidence that Palestinian aspirations do concern me. I've worked, if briefly, in Ramallah, Nablus, Hebron, Dura, Salfeit, and on Gaza in Washington. This discussion is more about public policy realities.

    Perhaps I wrote the title too quickly, but when posing it I meant that even if Palestinians do not see Abbas as their best choice for internal politics, he is one of the few available candidates who can sit at the negotiating table with Israel without Natanyahu getting right back up and walking out. To talk about a one-state solution as well as peace with Israel, I'm not sure we can leave Israel's goals out of the discussion.

    Besides, we sadly see that many of the leading Palestinian goals - a) War crimes investigations, b) Opening gaza, c) Taking down the divider wall and having freer movement to Jerusalem/AlQuds, d) Stopping or rolling back West Bank settlements - will only happen if Palestinians were to sadly abandon process and wage outright war or if instead they pursuade moderate Israeli constituents to put more specific pressure on or change the Israeli government.

    From my viewpoint, this last point is the fundamental pre-requisite for any peaceful change, if not a one-state solution that you proposed. The settlers aren't going to suddenly feel guilty or threatened and leave peacefully purely on the actions of Palestinian leaders. The Israeli military will have to remove checkpoints and back away first, if not block bulldozers and evacuate settlements.

    If you still disagree, please write in and offer a more developed recommendation on what Change readers might recommend to the US Dept of State as they continue peace negotiations with Israel and Palestine. Who do you think are the best leaders to come after Abbas in terms of the peace negotiation?

    Posted by Daniel J Gerstle on 11/09/2009 @ 01:56PM PT

  10. Reply to thread
  11. Nadir Q

    Dan, there was a time not too long ago when I had a pretty similar position as yours. That was a time before the war against Gaza, before the blockade, before the wall.I have finally realized that Israel is a colonial entity engaged in a vicious war against a largely defenseless population, and I realize now that there is no way way to sugarcoat that, no words to hide the reality on the ground.

    I personally believe that people such as yourself, who apparently do care about the Palestinians, need to be start recognizing that we are talking about a group who is quite literally being ethnically cleansed. What peace process is going to stop this? It really doesn't matter whether petulant Bibi will walk away from the negotiations, screw him. There should be no negotiations regarding the bulldozing and explusion of a people from their land. This shouldn't even be up for discussion. Unfortunately, Israel is so deluded in itself, so caught up in it's insecurity, that only firm American pressure could possibly give it pause. But, like most things, Obama has proven rather spineless in this.

    So what would I recommend for the US State Dept? Hamas has already said that they are willing to have a long term cease-fire with Israel if it withdrew to it's pre-1967 borders, and every Arab and Muslim state in the world said that they would have formal peace with Israel if it withdrew. The only thing in the way of this whole thing is Israel. There should be no negotiation regarding the settlements or the areas of the wall that are dividing Palestinian villages, those should be out without discussion. Everything else from refugees issues to Jeruselum should be negotiated later. 

    Of course this will never happen, Congress is probably more pro-Israel than the Knesset, so that pretty much leaves the only viable alternative as a one-state solution.

    The bottomline, is that  bloggers like yourself need to stop hyping up the peace process, there will be no process while a people are systematically removed from their land. Abbas is a moron, an absolute failure who did everything the Israelis wanted and got nothing in return. True peace can only happen when those in power  relent.

    Posted by Nadir Q on 11/09/2009 @ 07:11PM PT

  12. Jeff Rigsby

    I wouldn't agree with a great deal of what Nadir Q says, but he does make an important point.

    Focusing too much on the role of Abbas implies that the success of the peace process depends on having the right leadership in Palestine -- which it does. But it also depends on having the right leadership in Israel.

    Forgetting about intra-Palestinian politics for the moment, I think it's pretty clear that there won't be any progress as long as Yisrael Beitenu forms part of the ruling coalition in Israel.

    If Obama doesn't want to spend political capital unnecessarily, I think the right way for him to approach the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is by giving it a very low priority for the time being. Nothing positive is going to happen as long as Netanyahu's government is in power, regardless of who leads the Palestinian Authority. If Obama doesn't recognize this, he's in danger of setting up the perception a few years down the road that the US has somehow "failed" to achieve peace in the Middle East.

    Sometimes the smartest approach is not to try.

    Posted by Jeff Rigsby on 11/09/2009 @ 11:55PM PT

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Author
Daniel J Gerstle

Daniel J Gerstle is a creative long form crisis journalist, human rights researcher, and humanitarian aid consultant who's covered Bosnia, Croatia, Karabakh, Chechnya, Ingushetia, the Ossetias, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia very deeply, spiced with highlights of Sudan, Palestine, Jordan, Tajikistan, and Georgia. Prior to all this, he served as a US Marine reservist stateside.

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