Right Wing Wins; Peace Moves Farther Away

Published February 10, 2009 @ 08:12PM PT

Binyamin Netanyahu The results are in. The right wing bloc, led by Netanyahu's Likud party, has more than 60 seats in the new Knesset. Livni's Kadima does have one or two more seats than Likud - but will be forced to create a center right coalition to stay in power. No matter how you slice and dice it, Livni and Netanyahu will be sharing power, and the left - the peace camp - is in mourning.

As Ilene Prusher notes in the CSM, the Israeli political map has been shifting towards the right for some time - and that is very interesting. In the late 90s, I attended a training sponsored by SHATIL and led by a political consultant. He was explaining that votes are largely the result of demographics. Folks in large cities, with education, who have been in Israel longer, and have higher standards of living are more likely to vote for the left. This population is constantly growing as the percentage of Israelis with higher education grows, and as the country as a whole becomes wealthier.

A few factors have come together to change the demographics. First, the Russian immigration wave that added nearly a million new Israelis in the 90s shifted to the right as they became more integrated in Israeli society, instead of the left. Secondly, the massive inequality in Israel has resulted in a rising tide of wealth at the same time as living standards are going down or stagnating for big chunks of the working and middle classes. Finally, the war - as opposed to the background security situation - heightens people's awareness of and relience upon military solutions and those that back them.

These three trends came together to defeat the disorganized remnants of what used to be Israel's ruling class. Looking at the results - seeing that Barack's Labor got only 14 seats, coming in 4th - makes me sad. Labor was the ruling party in Israel from 1948 - 1977. It made sense that it wouldn't always be in charge, but to go down from main opposition party to 4th place, two seats less that the Jewish fascist Lieberman - it's pathetic. And it serves them right.

The constellation of centrist leaders that have been in charge for most of the past 16 years have conducted a dangerous experiment. Under the guise of making peace, they have been making peace negotiations. While the costs of an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal have been known for years, Israel has been torn between two self destructive poles.

The first, is the desire to have a stronger internal coalition for peace. While this is reasonable; the problem is that the political system encourages politicians to pretend to be for peace when the public mood is in favor, but then produce a failure when push comes to shove.

The second is the misguided belief that a better deal will be possible if only the Palestinians can be pushed (punished) a bit more. That dance of 'here we are negotiating for a peace that will never be attained because the Palestinians won't give up their rights' always had an expiration date. The public grows tired of the constant tension, of 'peace, peace yet there is no peace'.

We are in for more of the same now, with a minor change in actual policy, but more right wing rhetoric. The level of violence and human rights violations against the Palestinians will increase. Hunger, anger and terrorism aimed at Israeli civilians can't be far behind. Both sides will continue in their efforts to sear into the consciousness of the other, to make the point that they aren't going anywhere. And they aren't - especially not the victims, past, present and future.

Final results:

Kadima 28 (center right)

Likud 26 (right)

Yisrael Beiteinu 15 (scary fascists)

Labor 13 (has-been center left)

Shas 11 (Mizrachi, religious, right wing)

United Torah Judaism 5 (ultra orthodox, right wing)

Hadash 4 (only Jewish - Arab party. Left wing)

Jewish Home 3 (formerly National Religious Party. Far right)

United Arab List – Ta'al 4 (Arab party - includes Islamists, moderates)

Meretz 4 (oh how the mighty have fallen. Party that was for the war before it was against the war. Left wing)

National Union 4 (Fascist - but without a sufficiently scary and thuggish leader)

Balad 3 (Nationalist Arab. Left wing)

[PS. I'm very sorry that the Green Movement-Meimad didn't get in.]

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Comments (21)

I'm surprised too, that the Green Movement did not get any seats as I knew people who planned on voting for them, but they were also torn between the Green and Livni; they felt this was an important election and they might have to go with a more centrist candidate. I never ask people who they voted for as it really isn't my business, but I am assuming the psychology of these friends became the psychology of many.

It's encouraging to see that two of the Arab parties got seats, but I doubt they will be players as they have yet to get enough votes to do so.

Likud will pose a problem if they join forces with what you call the scary fascists, and other right wing groups and ignore Labor and Kadima. But elections have a way of communicating the concerns of the electorate: clearly Israel is feeling unsafe and unprotected--the backlash of world opinion after the Gaza War may have made the electorate more sensitive, so they want a more authoritative voice in detracting what they see as their attackers. I see this election as highly psychological of Israel's current mood.

I agree with you in that this will not help relations between Palestinians and Israel--it may follow the trajectory you note. Honestly are you that surprised? If the main concern is safety, then peace will mean the sword or rhetoric followed by more isolationist policies. People are sick of Hamas and even more sick of the world not "getting it" when it comes to Hamas. I am guessing that is uppermost in people's minds.

Kadima could form a coalition with Labor and some of the Arab groups to counter Likud; I doubt they will, but if they want peace, it is an option. However, Kadima will want to stay in power, so they will work with the real winner, which is Likud. However, don't lose hope. Not everyone in Likud is Bibi.

The wishes of the Israeli people must be respected. I personally think that if they continue in the path you sadly outlined, it will be to their detriment. But as Aragon said at Helm's Deep: "There is always hope."

Posted by S B on 02/11/2009 @ 06:05AM PT
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Quick note: The Arab parties have been around for a long time, getting 10 seats between them. This time they made it to 11. None of them will be part of a government: the racist attitudes of Israel make the persona non-grata even in a left wing government. That is why the Rabin administration in the early 90s would not include them.

This is a victory for one-staters who see the demise of a two state solution as a good thing.

Posted by Charles Lenchner on 02/11/2009 @ 06:17AM PT
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I was up late last night watching the return and statements made by the leading Israeli politician. I think the message of the Israeli people and beyond them the American Jewish community is that peace, real peace, ending the occupation, sharing Jerusalem are not on the table. I think the message is loud and clear, NO PEACE. I suggest that Abbas and all members of the Palestinian Authority turn in their keys as managers of the Jewish Occupation, turn in their VIP IDs to the Ministry of Defense, disband the entire Palestinian Authority including the useless, incompetent and corrupt Security Forces and I strongly suggest that ALL Palestinians under Occupation in the West Bank and in Gaza should burn their Israeli issued ID in mass protest and now let us see if we can win the battle for liberation, not by guns, not by suicide, not by stupid Kassam, but by sustained civil disobedience to the military and settlers occupation. Let Israel and all of its new leaders bring in and deploy their sharp shooters, tanks and guns and jets and bombed the entire West Bank and Gaza to the ground, let us see if their racist and arrogant ways win the day. Ending the Jewish Occupation must not be left to the Palestinians alone, it is an international responsibility that has been vetoed by the US for such a long time. There is no other way but a one state solution. No if or but about it.

Posted by Sami Jamil Jadallah on 02/11/2009 @ 06:59AM PT
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Sami, good idea, Palestinians disarm, no more kassams or terrorists.

Then we go back to the future to the political situation prior to June 4, 1967, with a slight difference. This time the border between Israel and Jordan is redrawn, and the WB population goes back to being Jordanian citizens, they were very happy then so why not again.

Posted by Michael Ross on 02/11/2009 @ 07:27AM PT
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Michael. who are you to determine if Palestinians can be Palestinians or Jordanians? I do not see your appointment in the Quran,Torah or Bible. Stop all this stupid non-sense, and stop believing you are a Chosen One,to decide for others.Yes, Israel should disarm too. I promise I will not even bother to answer someone like you again. We have nothing to talk about, nothing to discuss, and your remarks are insulting and demeaning to me and I am sure to others on this site.

Posted by Sami Jamil Jadallah on 02/11/2009 @ 08:27AM PT
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We are on to you Sami, one state, yes, then in 10 years a majority of Arabs. Then you vote to change the name of Israel to Palestine. Then you evict the Jews, and bring in millions of arab refugees, end of Israel. Is that your plan?

Posted by Michael Ross on 02/11/2009 @ 09:12AM PT
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Now the cat is out of the bag. The whole 'Jordan is Palestine' meme is from Arik Sharon's bag of tricks from the 70s and 80s. It's a useless idea since 1987, when the Jordanian King officially changed the status of the Palestinians in the West Bank and the West Bank institutions to reflect the international consensus that those territories are never going to be Jordanian again.

It's an idea that no party in Israel actually supports. That's how useless it is.

Posted by Charles Lenchner on 02/11/2009 @ 11:52AM PT
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Charles, thanks for responding, actually this is not my idea, not my cat and not my bag, but very valid today:

Former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton, Middle East Forum president Daniel Pipes, and Efraim Inbar, director of Bar-Ilan University's Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies have concluded that the only realistic solution for peace right now is the three state solution.

Back to the future, to the same state of affairs that existed between 1949-1967, were Jordan was in control of the West Bank and Egypt in control of Gaza.

Posted by Michael Ross on 02/11/2009 @ 01:52PM PT
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Charles, lets think about this idea, hypothetically, wouldn't the Palestinians be better of as part of Jordan.

Economically what chance does a separate state have of making it without the massive support they are now getting from the UN and Arab states? No economical, cultural or history exists for such a state.

If Jordan were a democracy and not a monarchy, then the Palestinians would be Jordanians, not true?

Posted by Uzi Baron on 02/11/2009 @ 02:38PM PT
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I am not aware of a country that denies "Jews" the right of citizenship. They have New York City, North Miami, Chicago, Shaker Heights, Russia, Poland, France, England, Moldavia, Ukraine and 100 more countries. I am not aware they have Divine rights to Palestine, not aware they were "Chosen" to decide where Palestinians belong or should be better off. With more Jews in the US and in very powerful economic, political financial, media position, I am sure Israeli Jews will be much better off in North Miami rather than Palestine. After all its name is not Jewdustan but Palestine. My name is Sami Jadallah, and I approve of this message.

Posted by Sami Jamil Jadallah on 02/11/2009 @ 03:36PM PT
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These are racist remarksand are disgusting. If anyone dared to say such things about Palestinians they would be quickly censored.

Posted by s o on 02/11/2009 @ 10:21PM PT
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Israel does not want peace - they made that obvious with their election. Palestinians need their own country. They are not Jordan's or anyone else's responsibility (3.5 MILLION People). At a time of financial crisis, where American tax payers are being affected, we should fight for our tax money to be used for the betterment of our society not the destruction of another (Gaza/West Bank and don't forget Lebanon). We cannot continue to watch Israel atrocities being committed stamped with US approval and US money.

Posted by Mary Richards on 02/11/2009 @ 04:20PM PT
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I am shocked as to how little you all know about Israel and its elections. Your assumptions are totally inaccurate and misleading. When Israel has a true partner for peace then we have a chance.

Until that time comes,it matters little who is the Israeli PM. The real issues as to why Israel moved to more conservative parties have actually little to do with the Palestinians and more to do with the desire to create more separation between religion and State.

That is why Lieberman received so many mandates.

Also, the traditional left, like Meretz and even labor have been so ideologically locked into the past that they have become almost irrelevant. Until the left in Israel and I may say the left leaning writers on this blog stop their elitism and self-importance the people will stop taking you seriously.
You concern yourself with Israel and its leadership and you are all silent about the constant deterioration of freedom of speech in Europe. The erosion of free speech is so worrisome that soon there will be police patrolling the streets and arresting people for making ugly statements about the over-ripe tomatoes.

I would rather have every Jew hater in Europe proudly express themselves and have the public condemn their words rather then threaten these folks with jail. All of these laws are really a cover for the fear of criticizing Islam and the Muslim sensitivity where freedom of speech is not respected by many.

I also think that Charles calling Lieberman a fascist really shows a lack of understanding of what the word means. Stop being lazy and look it up and you will clearly see that he may be other things but not one that wants centralized control of the government. This is sloppy thinking. knee jerk disgust for someone you know little about but quickly condemn.

Wikipedia definition of fascism: Fascism is an authoritarian nationalist ideology focused on solving economic, political, and social problems that its supporters see as causing national decline or decadence.[1][2][3][4] Fascists aim to create a single-party state in which the government is led by a dictator who seeks unity by requiring individuals to subordinate self-interest to the collective interest of the nation or a race.[5][6][7] Fascist movements promote violent conflict between nations, political factions, and races as part of a social darwinist view that conflict between these groups is natural and a part of evolution.[8][9]

Fascist governments permanently forbid and suppress all criticism and opposition to the government and the fascist movement.[10] Fascist movements oppose any ideology or political system that gives direct political power to people as individuals rather than as a collective through the state (liberalism, democracy, individualism); that is deemed detrimental to national identity and unity (class conflict, communism, internationalism, laissez-faire capitalism); that protects and enhances the power of "weak" people rather than promoting "strong" people (egalitarianism); that may oppose major changes to institutions and cultural values that it proposes (conservatism) and that undermine the military strength and military ambitions of the nation (pacifism).[11][12][13] [14][15][16][17][18][19][20]

This is NOT Lieberman for sure.

Posted by s o on 02/11/2009 @ 10:49PM PT
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Michael and Uzi, I must disagree with you concerning the "three-state solution." First, Jordan and Egypt would never in a million years agree to take control of the West Bank and Gaza respectively. Second, palestinians deserve their own national state. In the 1920s and 30s Palestinian national aspirations were growing right along Israeli national aspirations. The idea that palestinians are "invented" and are actually jordanians is preposterous. It is a denial of history. When people say all palestinians should move to one of the several the arab states it is ignorant, arrogant and plain narrow-mindedness. Yes, palestinians have acted against their own national interest several times but that does not mean that their time has passed. A palestinian state is not concievable in the near future, but when the illegal settlements are evacuated and HAMAS gives up its terror campaign in favor of peaceful political action (a farcry as of right now but everyone thought that about the IRA also) then I believe a Palestinian and Israeli state can coexist together modeled on an modified edition of the 1967 borders.

Posted by Nick Messina on 02/11/2009 @ 07:09PM PT
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Sami, Jews have it good in America, that is true, but that is only after the WWII and Holocaust!   A friend of mine who is 87, remembers how there were quotas to limit the number of Jews in Medical school. His father changed the name to sound more Anglosaxon in order to be more successful as a lawyer and enable his children not to suffer from anti-semitism.

If you listen to C-span Washington Journal, available every morning from 7-10, you can hear an increasing number of callers expressing rather anti-Semitic feelings against Jews who "caused it all". Yes there are Jews who were scam artists at Wall Street, but it has nothing to with them being Jews. Crook is a crook, no matter what religion or nationality! Nixon was not Jewish and neither was GW Bush, or Cheny (Pearl and Wolfowitz were) ;-)!   However, when times are difficult, people like to lash out at minorities...Jews, poor people, Mexicans, Muslims etc...

Jews were extremely assimilated and successful in France, but there was a Dreifus affair at the end of 19th century. Jews were assimilated in Austria and Germany, but when Hitler came to power (democratically elected), it did not matter how German or Austrian they felt, Jews were killed outright or in concentration camps if they had at least one grandparent Jewish. God forbid that something like that happens here.   For many Jews the fact that Israel exists gives hope that if worse comes to worse, there is a place to go and get saved: ISRAEL

Posted by Vlasta Molak on 02/11/2009 @ 07:18PM PT
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It's ironic that Kadima is now looking very "left". "Peace" moving "farther away" really had nothing to do with this election; the illusion of "peace" with trumped up photo-ops may be on the shelf, and really, good riddance.

But that looks more ominous for the Palestinians. Not that they needed more to be pessimistic about.

Why do people insist on the Jordanian option? It failed decades ago, and had many incarnations (the Allon Plan, the Rogers Plan) and people still insist that it's the best option. Jordan DOESN'T want the West Bank. Period.

Posted by Joshua Alzona on 02/12/2009 @ 03:25PM PT
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Jordan lost the West Bank in the 67 war and does not want more people that represents a 5th column. It already has its hands full over the river. The only thing that looks more "ominous" for the Palestinians is the continuous use of the victim card. It it getting old and if there is a serious desire for a relationship with Israel then someone in the Palestinian leadership needs to step up and say so. Their leaders play
to the press and public opinion polls. It is not the EU or US that they need to sway but their own people and convince Israel it is serious about a two state solution.

Posted by s o on 02/12/2009 @ 09:50PM PT
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There is one other possible solution a three state one, Israel, Gaza and Parts of the West Bank. Gaza run by Hamas, parts of the WB (to be negotiated) run by the PA.

Both Gaza and the New Palestine would have to be demilitarized for Israel to consider such a solution.

Posted by Michael Ross on 02/15/2009 @ 03:56PM PT
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Michael, how do you propose to demilitarize New Palestiine? Who is going to do it? Remember demilitarization of Sinai in 1956, then demilitarization of South Lebanon in 1980, when UN troops were stationed on Sinai border with Israel and Lebanese border with Israel respectively.

In 1981, I met a group of nice UN-soldiers from India and Fiji, who were taking a tourist bus to visit Cairo (so was I). They told me that during their stationing in Southern Lebanon, they were not allowed to search any Arab, who may have been carying guns, or confiscate those guns if they saw them. The whole thing for a joke, which has been demostrated in subsequent wars in Lebanon. Naturally, Israel left Lebanon two times, and now Hetzbollah is back as a de facto government continuiing their rantings for destruction of Israel.

Posted by Vlasta Molak on 02/16/2009 @ 04:59PM PT
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Good question Vlasta,

Only the IDF can do the job, with the threat of returning if they do not comply.

Right now the PA police force trained by the USA in Jenin are doing quite a good job and did not allow riots during the Gaza project. And are rounding up terrorists, so if they prove themselves, this could be another solution, strengthening them.

Posted by Michael Ross on 02/16/2009 @ 05:11PM PT
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I doubt that Hamas and PA would want IDF in their midst...they would probably kidnap young IDF solders and start trouble all over again.

Unless Palestinian Arabs from Gaza and West Bank renounce violence (and teaching their children hate toward Israel and Jews in general), there is no hope for a viable Palestinian state that could be self-sufficient and not threaten the very survival of Israel.

When Sami from here will be able to travel to Gaza and West Bank and denounce suicide bombing and Hamas, and come back alive to tell us about it, we will be in business creating Palestinian state there.

I am glad that PA police force is standing up to riots. Maybe there is a hope after all ;-)!

Posted by Vlasta Molak on 02/16/2009 @ 08:04PM PT
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Charles is a nonprofit professional with 20 years of experience working with nonprofit organizations in Israel, Palestine and the U.S. For the past few years, he's been specializing in online organizing.