Seven Things You Must Understand About the Israeli Elections
Published February 11, 2009 @ 06:10PM PT
1. The balance of power inside Israel has been shifting from 1977 away from the traditional elites associated with secular, social democratic, Ashkenazi and liberal values. In 1977 the Likud attracted many Mizrachi votes, Jews from Arab and Muslim countries who experienced some degree of social exclusion. The forces that coalesced around the Likud then are today represented by an array of independent parties all representing specific, large and powerful segments of the electorate: Russian speaking immigrants, Mizrachi and Sephardic pride, settlers and the orthodox parties.
2. Rabid, right wing and neo-fascist views are not new in Israel. In 1984 Rabbi Meir Kahane was elected to the Knesset representing his anti-Arab, anti-democratic and clerical vision for Israel. In 1988 his list was banned. Today, his views - expressed with less spittle and Hitler like speechifying - have spread across nearly a quarter of the new Knesset. Led by Yvette Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu, these odious views are likely to become part of Israeli state policy in various areas. State sanctioned discrimination against Palestinian citizens of Israel will increase, along with gutter level ugliness emitted by cabinet ministers.
3. The Israeli turn to the right, with all of the thuggishness, Jewish fundamentalism and militarism that suggests, will empower Hamas, Hizbullah and other religious and violent factions across the Arab world. Within those factions, internal struggles over between ideologues and realists are more likely to be won by the extremists. The right wing victory in Israel will undermine moderate Arab regimes and US allies, and inspire right wing opponents of President Obama to resist him with greater intensity using his efforts to advance peace as justification.
4. The remnants of the Zionist left have been crushed. Meretz and Labor - the heart of the coalition that Yitzhak Rabin led in 1992 - has been reduced to a handful. Not one of them has the making of an inspirational leader with new ideas. Ehud Barak (Labor) and Hayyim Oron (Meretz) have little to offer the public or their own party diehards. They are faced with a choice: admit that those leaders were wrong, and replace them, admit that their ideas were wrong, and change them, or charge their own former voters with being wrong while preparing to tell them 'we told you so' when prophesies of doom and gloom materialize. Human nature suggests the third option, while Israeli politics allows for it to actually work. It worked for Netanyahu.
5. The right wing strategic vision replaces ending the conflict with managing the conflict. This is a sober and realistic assessment of what is required (from the right wing perspective); a turn towards improving the occupation's efficiency instead of pretending to end it. It also means admitting to educated, secular, urben and kibbutz born Israelis that there is no hope. Israel is doomed to live by the sword for the foreseeable future. This runs counter to the dreams of the founding generation of Israel and to the dominant strain in popular culture. It runs counter to basic human nature, and requires massive amounts of fear and indoctrination to stay in place as the dominant cultural theme. Two things will happen: the exodus of educated and entreprenurial Israelis will continue, and Hamas will do everything in its power to sustain the right wing vision, which in turns helps it stay relevant.
6. President Obama and Hillary Clinton cannot actually influence the diplomatic environment under these circumstances. They have to either work in subtle ways to undermine the new government, hoping it fails spectaculary and is replaces in new elections, accept it and resign themselves to 4-5 years of pretending to make an effort without actually wasting political capital in the Arab world, or give up and walk away Bush style. (I sincerely hope I'm wrong.)
7. Forces in the American Jewish community hoping to pressure the US administration to support peace are in a very difficult situation. Even if they are successful in mobilizing that constituency they won't see real success on the ground in Israel and Palestine. I hope they have a plan for getting through the lean years until the next round of elections in Israel.
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Comments (22)
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Shalom Charles,
I hope you are wrong with this grim view of Israeli politics. In the past it was the right under Begin that signed a peace agreement 6 years after the Yom Kippur war with Egypt.
I would take a "wait and see" approach before condemning a government not even formed yet.
Netanyahu may surprise you yet.
Interesting analysis, but I have to respectfully disagree with you.
Posted by Michael Ross on 02/11/2009 @ 06:34PM PT
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Charles and Michael hello, I would like to add to point 5 in the aspects that Israeli leaders will turn to a cycle of conflict and peace management rather then resolution. In the past after going through periods of conflict "ripeness," such as during Oslo and Camp David, leaders on both sides have engaged in serious negotiations, but today peace is farther then ever and any negotiations reported in the media will only be political theater.
Also, I am a strong supporter for the concept of Israel and its security but am firmly against settlement in "Judea and Samaria." Increasing jewish settlements in the west bank with their massive jigsawing highways and protective security zones will only further extremism amongst Palestinians and make them push for the one state solution which will only lead to further bloodshed.
Posted by Nick Messina on 02/11/2009 @ 07:28PM PT
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There will soon come a time when, I hope that people will see as I do, that no one really cares about what Israel does any more, they've made their bed now let them Lay in it. When they are totally destroyed by their separatism ways it will just be one less dust hole the US will not have to worry about. There will never be peace in the middle east until Israel is put in it's place. When I say this I mean that there is absolutely nothing special about Israel. The turth is there isn't anything special about any of the middle eastern countries except their oil, and it won't be long before the rest of the world overcomes their dependency on oil then we can just let these little dust hole countries go back to fighting their petty little wars and forget about them. Get over this crap people.
Posted by Luke Sexton on 02/11/2009 @ 09:50PM PT
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I would agree that oil has inflamed the middle east. Also, the era of oil power is coming to an end. This will change the dynamics of the region greatly, but possibly not the way that you expect or hope. Israel has developed itself into a productive, progressive nation. It may not be progressive in every way that the US or Europe would desire, but it ranks high in most respects. It is also fortunate in that 15 years worth of natural gas supply has just been found off of Haifa. It may have to share some of this with Lebanon if the field is larger than expected, but this will probably be enough to last it to the end of the era of oil dependence. Good economic relations and trade with Israel will look better and better to the rationale folks among Israel's neighbors as petrodollars dry up.
Despite absurd claims of Israel dominating the media, it is the Arabs with their petrodollars who have bought the media, especially in Europe, and paid off a generation of "scholars" (even in Israel) to fabricate and distort the truth. Fear of losing oil as well as direct cash payments have made many people bend over backwards (and forwards) to please the Islamists. They have invented a fictitious "Palestinian people", which never existed in history, to be their proxy Army against Israel and supplied them with weapons. Just as Israel absorbed about a million Jewish refugees from the Middle East who were kicked out of their homes (while holding deeds for land whose combined area is much greater than that of the whole of current Israel even including the disputed land that Israel won in battle), so the Arab states should have reabsorbed most of the four to six hundred thousand Arab refugees. That still would be a good solution and one way or the other that is probably going to happen eventually, especially when the Arabs' only bargaining chip (aside from unbridled population growth and terrorism) is pumped dry. I certainly look forward to the end of the oil era.
By the way, ironically Israels' "friends", the conservatives, probably did more to over-empower the Islamic radicals than anyone else by refusing to believe that the oil era needed to be over. I am a strong supporter of Israel, but it doesn't bother me if Barack Obama has a sort of family affinity for Muslims. That's fine. We should try to get along well with all groups, religions, and races. It doesn't even bother me if he reduces aid to Israel, though he likely won't or won't reduce it much. As long as he pushes for alternative energy production, a lot of things in the world are going to improve. They might improvement in ways that are different than either you or I can predict, but I think they will improve. There are actually many, many alternatives to the one vs. the two state solution in the Middle East. But it is probably not going to get settled for about 20 years, which is when the oil will really have run out (it would be nice if we stop using it altogether prior to that, except where it is indispensable, such as airplane fuel. I can't see flying planes on batteries). Though the whole Middle East is unstable, I would give Israel the best chance of still existing in something like its current form by that time. And at that point I expect a settlement will be made that will include recognition of Israel by all its neighbors. I doubt there will be a separate Palestinian state (aside from Jordan, which is essentially a Palestinian state). But neither I nor anyone else has a good way of predicting exactly what will happen.
There still may be a problem with Islamic terrorism in 20 years. Islamic expansionism is really the only true form of imperialism left in the world. There never was American imperialism. That is just a mantra chanted by those jealous of the US. As this century progressive, the jealous folks in the world will probably be talking more about Chinese imperialism because it is likely they will have the largest economy in 3 or 4 decades. But economic success is not imperialism. I expect Islamic imperialism to moderate when it is no longer fueled by oil.
Posted by Stephen Berman on 02/12/2009 @ 06:24PM PT
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Stephen, you are not only drinking the kool-aid, but are elbows deep in it, nose touching the bottom of the punch bowl.
The media is controlled by the Arabs? Funny how that fails to explain why so much Western sentiment - including your own - is at best, or at worst outright prejudicial towards Arabs and Muslims. One example is in how the term "jihad" is regularly interchanged with "holy war", its second and more significant meaning of "inner struggle" scarely mentioned. I can't speak for Europe, only for America, but an Arab-controlled media is certainly not part of any reality I observe in this country.
And Islamic expansionism is the only form of imperialism left in the world? You're talking about this world, right? Planet Earth? Or some alternate reality? It cannot be called "imperialism" or "expanionism", when states or organizations do NOT attempt to move beyond their established borders, but rather only try to expel foreign elements from their own lands. In order to "expand", one would have to have a STATE, and so exactly which terrorist organization has borders that they are attempting to stretch.
Even bin Laden, who is by any reasonable person's estimates one of the worst people in history, states his goal only as the removal of foreign power from "Muslim lands". Were he to push for some re-establishment of a Muslim caliphate after the fact - and of course that will never happen, anyway - then perhaps we could call it imperialism.
And by god, man, do you seriously contend that there is no such thing as American imperialism? So the Spanish American War had nothing to do with controlling the waters around the U.S., and I guess U.S. incursions into Cuba and Puerto Rico were all about "liberation", just like the later incursions into Grenada and now Iraq?
What reason do U.S. scholars -like Howard Zinn or Noam Chomsky - have to be "jealous of the U.S."? For goodness sakes, pick up a few books, and take a breather from all that propaganda.
Posted by Godheval Chaos on 02/13/2009 @ 07:53AM PT
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Luke,
The problem with isolationism is that we live in a global economy and a shrinking world, ignore the proxy war Iran is fighting against Israel, (and they are going nuclear), at our own peril, we should help our allies in this war.
A future attack from Iran may be any where USA, and could be even South Point OH.
Posted by Michael Ross on 02/11/2009 @ 10:16PM PT
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You are absolutely right my friend we do live in a shrinking world all the more reason to get busy taking care of what we have left. We can no longer afford to take on the problems of the whole world it's time to come home and worry about ourselves. I assure you the people here in South Point, Ohio will have no problem keeping the trouble from our doors, fighting for someone else's imagined freedom is much different from fight for your own true freedom. I hope the same for where you live. I'm not really as hard as I seem I'm just a realist.
Posted by Luke Sexton on 02/12/2009 @ 01:22AM PT
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Michael Ross,
You are only seeing things through one possible perspective, and are allowing the mainstream view (or is that misunderstanding?) to dictate how you view foreign affairs.
Iran is fighting a war with Israel? That's news to me. And even if Tehran's nuclear program is to build weapons, and not civilian power as they claim, they would most likely only use that power as an implicit bargaining chip. Ahmadinejad's insidious claims to the contrary, neither he nor Khamenei would order a nuclear strike on Israel or the United States, because it would completely undermine any political objective they could possibly have. The reasons:
1. If they attacked Israel, it would result in the immediate (and I mean overnight) annihilation of virtually the entire country of Iran. If the 22-day war was the response to 3 casualties caused by some poorly aimed Hamas rockets, then one can scarcely imagine the response to a nuclear attack. It might quite possibly be the end of the world. Ahmadinejad is radical, a bit delusional, but he's not bat-shit insane.
2. Any sort of attack, even non-nuclear, would only affirm the entire world's suspicion, and justify any and all attacks on the country by a united coalition from Europe to the U.S. It is not at all in Iran's best interests to bring the ire of the most powerful forces in the world down on themselves.
Posted by Godheval Chaos on 02/13/2009 @ 08:03AM PT
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Chaos, you say: "Iran is fighting a war with Israel?"
Who is supplying Hamas and Hizbellah with weapons? Who is training Hamas and Hizbellah? These are proxies of Iran, I would call that "a war with Iran"
Why would Iran build multimillion dollar rockets if they could only carry a conventional bomb that can blow up one building? Makes no sense, unless you plan to use that rocket to carry a nuclear device.
Your assumption that Iran's leaders are sane is not a safe one, they are known Islamic fanatics, and have said on several occasions that their "messiah" will only come down again once Israel is eliminated, and they don't care if they lose half the country in the effort. So MAD does not apply in this case. Because they are mad. Would you bet your country on that assumption (That they are sane?)
Posted by Michael Ross on 02/13/2009 @ 12:04PM PT
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Michael Ross, your assertion that Iran is supplying Hamas and Hezbollah with weapons is:
1) First of all, not confirmed. But I hardly doubt that it's true. My point in mentioning the lack of confirmation, however, is to stress the importance of not relying only on one source or group of sources for your information, which may - and likely ARE - biased towards one point of view.
Iran's justification for arming Hamas - if this is in fact the case - would be in sync with virtually the entire Middle East's support for better conditions for Palestinians in Israel. It would not be Iran waging a proxy war, but Iran aiding Hamas in its resistance effort. The legitimacy of using violence for resistance is another issue entirely, and one best discussed with respect to Hamas.
To the point, Iran arming Hamas is no different than the U.S. arming Israel - which we do to a MUCH greater extent - and which Israel uses to MUCH greater effect against the Palestinians, as the most recent 22-day war demonstrated. The same applies to Hezbollah, where we saw another disproportionate reaction by Israel that, AGAIN, was repudiated by the global community, with the exception of the U.S.
You say:
Why would Iran build multimillion dollar rockets if they could only carry a conventional bomb that can blow up one building? Makes no sense, unless you plan to use that rocket to carry a nuclear device.
But this seems to miss the point I made earlier about Iran's bargaining chip. Demonstrating that you have the capability to strike is NOT the same thing as striking, or even planning to strike. The whole world knows that the U.S. can reach any place on earth with a nuclear bomb. It does not mean that we plan to do so. However, the mere fact of our ability is what gives us such weight in the global political sphere. Iran, IF it is in fact creating weapons (something again of which we have zero proof), would only be looking to have a seat at the table with the rest of the power brokers.
The U.S., in its denial of Iran's civilian nuclear program, is actually violating the terms of the NPT, under which Iran is allowed to harness nuclear power for those purposes. Ironically, the U.S. is not only amicable, but complicit in India's stockpiling of nuclear weapons, and they are NOT bound by the NPT, because they never signed it. So why all the animosity and distrust towards a country that has no proven ability to use nuclear weapons, all the while giving the OK to a country that makes no apologies for the fact that it is heavily armed?
You say:
Your assumption that Iran's leaders are sane is not a safe one, they are known Islamic fanatics
Are they? What do you base this opinion on? That they are not amicable towards Israel or U.S. foreign policy and happen to be Muslims? What exactly makes them "Islamic fanatics"? Ideological opponents are not automatically enemies, and certainly not automatically fanatics. Try some objectivity in your approach.
You continued with:
and have said on several occasions that their "messiah" will only come down again once Israel is eliminated, and they don't care if they lose half the country in the effort.
No one in Iran, not Ahmenijad, nor Khamenei, said such a thing. Where do you get your information from?
On the contrary, Hillary Clinton did almost explicitly say that Iran could be annihilated if necessary. Try to imagine living in Iran and hearing that. Given that we actually have the capacity to carry out such an annihilation, Clinton's threat carries far more weight than anyone's in Iran.
And even if Ahmenijad were the one to utter the words you've cited - and again, you'll have to show me the proof of that - he would not have the power to carry out his actions. He is, after all, only the president, not the Supreme Leader.
Posted by Godheval Chaos on 02/13/2009 @ 01:43PM PT
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Chaos, saying "Hamas resistance" against Israel is like saying Nazi Germany resisted the Jews. Have you read the Hamas charter, its online for all to read, they have a master plan to eliminate all of the Jews in Israel, you call that resistance.
Hamas is a terror organization by definition, intentionally targeting civilians for a political end, in this case the destruction of Israel.
Furthermore you are falling into the same logical trap as the rest of the world, their is no "proportional response" that is utter and complete nonsense invented by some brilliant PR person.
You quoted Powell, he said, always use overwhelming power when confronting your enemy. What has proportion got to do with this?
What Israel should have sent 11,000 rockets into Gaza, in order to be proportional, give me a break!
Israel is out to stop Hamas from terrorizing its citizens, after 8 years of non-stop rockets and mortars (over 11,000) fired on civilians. Israel finally took action, and in my mind not sufficient they should have eliminated Hamas, done the world a favor.
I will answer the rest of your discussion later.
Posted by Michael Ross on 02/13/2009 @ 04:41PM PT
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continuation:
Ahmadinejad's Iran is increasingly resorting to incendiary and demonizing language, including epidemiological metaphors reminiscent of Nazi incitement. Senator Obama himself stated that Ahmadinejad’s “words contain a chilling echo of some of the world's most despicable and tragic history.” For example, Ahmadinejad characterizes Israel as "filthy bacteria," “a stinking corpse” and "a cancerous tumor that needs to be excised," while referring to Jews as "evil incarnate," “blood-thirsty barbarians” and the "defilers of Islam" - the whole as prologue to, and justification for, a Mid-East genocide, while at the same time denying the Nazi one.
For the full article:
http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3571759,00.html
Posted by Michael Ross on 02/13/2009 @ 04:55PM PT
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The Deadly Threat of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
What can the world, what can the USA, what can Israel do about it?
http://www.factsandlogic.org/ad_109.html
Chaos, read on, the truth is out there, if you wish to find it.
Posted by Michael Ross on 02/13/2009 @ 05:07PM PT
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Seriously, Michael Ross? Do you write these things fully believing them? You're comparing Hamas - which has proven utterly ineffectual against Israel - to the Nazis? Are you seriously going to invoke the holocaust in discussing some poorly aimed rockets that have amounted in a piddling number of casualties? 6 million compared to 3.
But then, that would demonstrate your failure to understand scale - and disproportionate responses.
It is clear that you are pro-Israel, and will not listen to any other position, so I've grown tired of this discussion.
It is not proof of anything that you send me links to an Israeli website or another publication which already supports your own point of view. Both of those websites are propaganda. That is not objective, that is not a balanced discussion. That is you trying to validate your position, even though frankly, it is not valid.
The reality of the situation is that if we were to compare anyone to Nazis in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, it would be the Israelis. The irony is staggering.
It is Israel hoarding Palestinians into a small sliver of land, and allowing them no access to resources or medicine. It is Israel that is seeing a radical like Avigdor Lieberman, who speaks openly of expelling Arabs from Israel, and who demands state loyalty under the pretext of nationalism and self-defense. Who does that sound like? Adolf Hitler.
But in truth, Lieberman is not Hitler. He is a man who needs to be recognized for the threats he poses to Middle East peace and to whatever basic human decency remains in Israel. To dismiss him with a Hitler comparison is to ignore his unique brand of degeneracy.
Still, since you mentioned Nazi Germany - as hardly a Zionist anywhere can avoid doing when discussing any opposition to Israel - I figured I needed to put things in their proper perspective.
But whatever. Go on believing whatever you wish. That Israel is infallible, that their enemies are irrational and anti-Semitic, entitled only to annihilation rather than basic human rights and/or national sovereignty.
While you do that, I'll silently hope that eventually the rest of the world will behave differently. I'm done here.
Posted by Godheval Chaos on 02/13/2009 @ 10:02PM PT
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Chaos, the truth can be inconvenient at times, walking away from a debate does not make you right.
The Nazis started small also and weren't successful in the beginning, I am not comparing Hamas in size to Nazi Germany but in ideology, they are copying the Nazis.
The website Flame is not Israeli it is authored by an American, and the fact that it is pro-Israel does not make it propaganda, it is in fact quite accurate.
As far as "hoarding Palestinians.." what are you making this up as you go along, Chaos. The Gazans have chosen their own growth rate by having on average 5 children per family, and as far as hoarding, its Egypt that does not let them integrate with their families in the Sinai. They have no affiliation to Israel, and were part of Egypt up until 6.4.67.
The rest of your post is pure Arab propaganda, lies and more lies. Repeating a lie does not make it a truth.
Posted by Michael Ross on 02/14/2009 @ 10:11AM PT
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This is who the founder of FLAME is, just to show how Chaos is inventing his "facts" as he goes along.
About FLAME's President, Gerardo Joffe
GERARDO JOFFE is a native of Germany. He spent his young manhood in Bolivia, where he worked for eight years in the tin, tungsten, and antimony mines of that country. At a young age, he became chief engineer of the Colquiri Mine, which was then the second-largest tin mine in the world.
He worked in the mines of the tristate area of Missouri / Kansas / Oklahoma and in the Idaho panhandle and for seven years in the oil fields of Arkansas/Texas/Louisiana.
He has a degree in mining engineering from the University of Missouri at Rolla and is a professional engineer. He has an MBA degree from the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. He has a law degree from La Salle Extension University.
Posted by Michael Ross on 02/14/2009 @ 10:15AM PT
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to Godheval Chaos: It would be good if you read history of Zionism and of Palestine (start with the Mark Twain' travelogue in Palestine, the Innocents abroad). Then go to Wijipedia and see discussions about Zionism, Islam' view of the Jews (Dhimmis), Arab nationalism, Jewish expulsion from Arab countries etc., rather than promoting the one-seded views of people who openly proclaim as their goal ANNIHILATION OF ISRAEL and killing of Jews everywhere in the world. Those Wikipedia articles are rather objective, with lots of original references, writen as the history was unforlding in creating Israel, rather than the current leftist, Iranian, Hamas and Hetzbollah distorted history and plain propaganda.
While a person somewhere in Pennsylvanis can comfortably afford a philosophical high-road, those who survived 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973 wars against Israel, initiated by their Arab neighbors, intended to annihilate Israel, in addition to thousands of rockets and terrorist attacks on its integrity, a person in Ashkelon and Sderot has to flee for their life 10 times/day in the last 8 years. They do not have a luxury of debating fine points of ethics and phylosophy in the bomb shelters ;-)!
Go to Israel and study its population, both Jews and Arabs, and see the reality of living under the rantings and ravings of the neighbors whose life is dedicated to killing you and who teach their numerous children to dance with chants of death to the Jews ;-(!
Posted by Vlasta Molak on 02/16/2009 @ 04:39PM PT
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There is frequently this response to criticism of Israel's policies that are so blatantly intended for ethnic cleansing. We need to have a continuous open dialogue and not yield to the same bias held in American media. Yes, there is anger at these attrocities committed against the Palestinian people to prevent them from establishing a viable-secure-free nation in their homeland. I am impressed to see that there are currently demonstrations by Jews in New york City being held in front of the WZO telling Israel that past history of the Jewish people doesn't justify the persecution of Palestinians. At the website for Amy Goodman's TV program Democracy Now (Democracynow.org) there is an interview with Former Speaker of the Israeli Parliament Avraham Burg who has written: "The Holocaust Is Over: We Must Rise from its Ashes". He expresses concern that the continued expansion of Israeli settlements are an effort by the right wing in Israel to prevent a two state solution.
Posted by James Appleton on 02/13/2009 @ 10:27AM PT
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Thank you, James, for reminding everyone that there are rational Jews who do not support the ethnic cleansing being carried out by Israel. And thank you, Godheval, for not letting Michael's rants rule the day. You both give me hope.
Posted by J T on 02/14/2009 @ 05:10PM PT
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Ethnic cleansing by Israel? What are you smoking ;-)?!
Here is the new evaluation of Israeli elections by Gush Shalom, Uri Avnery' peace outfit:
Ms Tantalus
TANTALUS IS punished by the Gods for reasons that are not entirely clear. He is hungry and thirsty, but the water in which he stands recedes when he bends down to drink from it and the fruit above his head continually evades his hand.
Tzipi Livni is now undergoing a similar torture. After winning an impressive personal victory at the polls, the political fruit keeps slipping from her grasp when she stretches out her hand.
Why should she deserve that? What has she done, after all? Supported the war, called for a boycott of Hamas, played around with empty negotiations with the Palestinian Authority? OK, she has indeed.. But such a terrible punishment?
HOWEVER, THE results of the elections are not as clear as they might seem. The victory of the Right is not so unambiguous.
Central to the election campaign was the personal competition between the two contenders for the Prime Minister’s office: Livni and Netanyahu (or, as they call themselves, as if they were still at kindergarten, Tzipi and Bibi.)
Contrary to all expectations and all polls, Livni beat Netanyahu. Several factors were involved in this. Among others: the masses of the Left were terrified by the possibility of Netanyahu winning, and flocked to Livni’s camp in order to "Stop Bibi!" Also, Livni – who was never identified with feminism – remembered at the last moment to call Israel’s women to her banner, and they hearkened to her call.
But it is impossible to ignore the main significance of this choice: Netanyahu symbolizes total opposition to peace, opposition to giving back the occupied territories, to the freezing of the settlements and to a Palestinian state. Livni, on the other hand, has declared more than once her total support for the "Two-Nation-States" solution. Her voters opted for the more moderate line.
True, the big winner in the elections was Avigdor Liberman. But his triumph is far from the fateful breakthrough everyone foresaw. He did not win the 20 seats he had promised. His ascent from 11 to 15 seats is not so dramatic. His party is indeed now the third largest in the Knesset, but that is less due to its own rise than to the collapse of Labor, which fell from 19 to 13. By the way, not one of the parties won even 25% of the vote. Israeli democracy is now very fragile indeed.
The Liberman phenomenon is ominous, but not (yet?) disastrous.
HOWEVER, THERE is no way to deny the most significant message of these elections: the Israeli public has moved to the right. From Likud to the right there are now 65 seats, from Kadima to the left only 55. One cannot argue with numbers.
What has caused this shift?
There are several explanations, all of them valid.
One can consider it as a passing phase after the war. A war arouses strong emotions – nationalist intoxication, hatred of the enemy, fear of the Other, longing for unity and for revenge,. All these naturally serve the Right – a lesson sometimes forgotten by the left when it starts a war.
Others see in it a continuation of a historical process: the Zionist-Palestinian confrontation is becoming wider and more complex, and such a situation feeds the Right.
And then there is, of course, the demographic factor. The rightist bloc attracts the votes of three sectors: the Oriental Jews (a majority of whom vote for Likud), the religious (who mostly vote for the fundamentalists) and the Russians (most of whom vote for Liberman). This is a group vote, almost automatic.
Two sectors in Israel have an especially high birth-rate: the religious Jews and the Arabs. The religious vote almost unanimously for the Right. True, the Orthodox and the National-Religious parties have not increased their strength in the elections, probably because many of their natural voters chose Likud, Liberman or the even more extreme National Union. The Arab citizens almost completely abstained from voting for Jewish parties, as many of them used to in the past, and the three Arab parties together gained one more seat.
The demographic development is ominous. Kadima, Labor and Meretz are identified with the old-established Ashkenazi sector, whose demographic strength is in steady decline. Also, many young Ashkenazis gave their votes – at least four seats worth – to Liberman, who preaches a secular fascism. They hate the Arabs, but they also hate the religious Jews.
The conclusion is quite clear: if the "center-left" does not succeed in breaking out of its elitist ghetto and striking roots within the Oriental and Russian sectors, its decline will continue from election to election.
NOW MS TANTALUS must choose between two bitter options: to retire to the desert where there is neither water nor fruit, or to serve as a fig-leaf for an obnoxious coalition.
Option No. 1: to refuse to join Netanyahu’s coalition and to go into opposition. That is not so simple. The Kadima party came into being when Ariel Sharon promised its members – refugees from right and left – power. It will be very hard for Livni to hold the lot together in opposition, far from the seat of power, far from the posh ministers’ offices and from luxurious official cars.
That would give us a rightist government which includes open fascists, pupils of Meir Kahane (whose party was banned because of his racist teachings), the advocates of ethnic cleansing, of the expulsion of Israel’s Arab citizens and the liquidation of any chance for peace. Such a government would inevitably find itself in confrontation with the United States and in worldwide isolation.
Some people say: that’s good. Such a government will necessarily fall soon and break apart. Thus the public will be persuaded that there is no viable rightist option. Kadima, Labor and Meretz will stew in opposition, and perhaps a real center-left alternative will come into being.
Others say: too risky. There is no limit to the disasters that a Netanyahu-Liberman-Kahanist government can bring upon the state, from the enlargement of the settlements that will torpedo any future peace, to outright war. We can’t stake everything on one card, when the chip is the State of Israel.
Livni’s option No. 2: to swallow the bitter pill, give in and join the Netanyahu government as a second, third or fourth wheel. In that case, she must decide at once, before Netanyahu establishes a fait accompli with an extreme-right coalition which Livni would then be invited to join as a junior partner.
I shall not be surprised if President Shimon Peres takes the initiative unofficially and promotes this option – before starting, in a week’s time, the official process of consulting with the Knesset factions and entrusting one of the candidates with the task of forming a government.
Could such a government move towards peace? Conduct real negotiations? Agree to the dismantling of settlements? Accept a Palestinian state? Recognize a Palestinian unity government that includes Hamas?
Hard to imagine. In the best case, it will go on with the charade of meaningless negotiations, quietly enlarge the settlements, lead Barack Obama by the nose and mobilize the pro-Israel lobby in order to obstruct any real American moves towards peace. What was will be.
CAN ISRAEL change course? Can a real peace-oriented alternative arise?
The two "Zionist Left" parties have been decisively beaten. Both Labor and Meretz have collapsed. Their two leaders who called for the Gaza War and supported it – Ehud Barak of Labor and Haim Oron of Meretz – have received the punishment they richly deserve. In a normal democracy, both would have resigned the day after the elections. But our democracy is not normal, and both leaders insist on staying on and leading their party to the next disaster.
Labor is a walking corpse – the only "social-democratic" party in the world whose leader’s sole aim is to stay on as war minister. When Barak spread the mantra "there is no one to talk with" he overlooked the logical conclusion "therefore we don’t need anyone to talk with them".
The Labor Party has no party, no members, no political program, no alternative leadership. It will fail in opposition as it failed in government. Barring a miracle, it will end up in the junkyard of history.
It will find Meretz already there. A socialist party that lost its way a long time ago: a party without any roots in the classes at the foot of the socioeconomic ladder, a party that has supported all our wars.
Some believe in easy solutions: a union of Labor and Meretz, for example. That is a union of the lame and the blind. No reason to expect that they would win the race.
THE REAL task is far more difficult. A completely new building must be erected in place of the one which has collapsed.
The need is for a new Left that will include new leaders from the sectors that have been discriminated against: the Orientals, the Russians and the Arabs. A new Left that will express the ideals of a new generation, people of peace, advocates of social change, feminists and greens, who will all understand that one cannot realize one ideal without realizing all of them. There can be no social justice in a military state; no one is interested in the environment while the cannons are roaring, feminism is incompatible with a society of machos riding on tanks, there can be no respect for Oriental Jews in a society that despises the culture of the Orient.
The Arab citizens will have to leave the ghetto in which they are confined and start to talk with the Jewish public, and the Jewish public must talk with the Arabs on equal terms. The Liberman slogan "No Citizenship Without Loyalty" must be turned around: "No Loyalty Without Real Citizenship".
As Obama has done in the US, a new language, a new lexicon must be created, to replace the old and tired phrases.
Much, much must be changed if we want to save the state.
AS FOR Ms. Tantalus: she can contribute to this process of change, or her torture will continue.
Echoing Pyrrhus, king of Epirus and Macedon, she can well say: Another such victory and we are undone.
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Posted by Vlasta Molak on 02/14/2009 @ 07:06PM PT
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I have been to Israel, Vlasta, and have seen how Palestinians are treated as less than human. There are many Israelis who would turn a blind eye to ethnic cleansing if it "protects" Israel. It is appalling and shameful. No amount of propaganda from your side will change what I personally saw. For the record, I am neither Arab nor Jew. There is no justification for apartheid of any kind. Jews especially should be hyper-vigilant about persecuting an entire people, but instead too often seem to think themselves exempt. Special. Entitled. Disgusting.
Posted by J T on 02/16/2009 @ 05:29PM PT
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"propaganda from MY side"?!!! NOT!
I lived in Israel as a non-Jew from Southern Europe for 5 years, starting in end of 1971, just 4 years after the 6-day war, when Old City of Jerusalem and East Jerusalem was recaptured from Jordanian occupation, which in 1948 let to expulsion of many native Jews who lived there for centuries. Their homes and their synagogues were confiscated and/or destroyed. Jews were happy that they could finally go to their holiest shrine (remnants of the Second temple, Wiling Wall), to pray just under the Dome of the Rock (as you see it on this peace site).
During my life in Israel (1971-1976), I travelled all over Israel and West Bank and once even visited Gaza strip. There were no checkpoints and there were no walls. Palestinian Arabs from Gaza and West Bank found employment in Israel and their numbers kept increasing exponentially, decreasing their chances for a good life. There was no "apartheid" then! Then Arafat and PLO came into picture inciting Intifadas, suicide bombers etc., until Oslo agreement. I was in Israel, when suddenly during the silence of holiest of hollies Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur), I heard radio calling young men to report to their army bases since Israel was again attacked by its neighbors, Egypt and Syria. I volunteered in picking fruits and cotton on land that was abandoned by men, because they went to Sinai and Golan hights to defend Israel from the stealth onslaught from Egypt and Syria. Weizmann Institute, where I was a student was devoid of all men, except the oldest ones (over 55 y of age).
I revisited Israel in 1998 and 1999 and was saddened that the beautiful open country of Israel has become afraid of body parts on its streets and buses, a result of misguided young Palestinian Arab men and sometimes women blowing themselves up, while killing dozens of Jews in the process and Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank dancing crazily to celebrate each "martyr" and Arab women giving interview on TV that they will give birth to thousands babies to kill the Jews.
I am equally saddened when I visited my old country and found out that the American embassy had moved from a center of the city, where the windows were an open library, where I often borrowed books to learn English, to far away place, surrounded by barbed wire! Also, I am saddened that in USA, which until Timothy Wade decided to bomb the Federal Building, we could go in and out of any public property in USA without being searched and screened, is turning into many checkpoints and security cameras.
I am saddened that after 9/11, when 20 suicide/homicide Arab men, mostly from Saudi Arabia flew into twin towers, and Pentagon, our brilliant Prez decided to bomb Afghanistan and Iraq, rather than treating this as a crime of the century, requiring criminal justice response, rather than military, which certainly had pissed off many Arabs and other non-Arab Muslims. I am saddened that our young soldiers had to lose their lives in desserts of far away places of Iraq and Afghanistan and even more saddened that 20-50 times as many Iraqis and Afghans have lost their lives and/or being maimed... I am saddened and angry that US have been spending trillions in "war against terror", while our inner cities (and now even suburbs) are dying in economic crisis. I am saddened that Obama wants to expand the "war on terror" in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and risking that we follow the fate of USSR in those regions.
I am saddened that some Palestinian Arabs are treated badly by some ignorant Israeli and American Jews, who feel entitled to kick the weaker guy, but I am equally saddened when I see Gazan and West Bank toddlers and kindergartners dancing and prancing in their school yards, strapped with plastic suicide belts and waving plastic guns, chanting antisemitic slogans and proclaiming their desire to be "martyrs" when they grow up. I am saddened when the Israeli government implemented an idiotic policy of demolishing homes of Palestinian families from which suicide bombers came to kill the Jews in Israel. I think that those families should have been given psychological counseling by the Jewish and Arab doctors, rather than having their houses destroyed (and in the process creating new suicide bombers).
It scares the beejees out of me when I see adult Hamas fighters with masks on their faces, with their fists up in air chanting insults to the Jews and promising massacres of Israelis and Jews around the world. I am scared when the Muslims in European countries and as far as Indonesia chant equally disgusting antisemitic slogans and wishing death to the Jews, or calling Jews disgusting names in San Francisco.
I am disappointed that people like you, who claim to want peace and justice, do not protest when thousands of rockets are launched from Gaza strip to hurt Israeli civilians, and when Hamas was killing Gazans in hundreds shortly after their election a few years ago and during Israeli military intervention in Gaza. I am extremely worried when I read the covenants of Hetzbollah and Hamas calling for annihilation of Israel, and quoting antisemitic slogans, promoted by fanatic clerics in their Friday nights rants against Jehudim and Zionists...I am extremely worried when the president of Iran and many mullah call for wiping Israel from the map, while building capacity for nuclear weapons and already having rockets that can reach Israel.
There is no complete justice anywhere in the world, but you focus on Israel, which still has to fight for its survival, rather than putting the whole picture in the context. When Palestinian Arab give up their contempt for Jews and wanting to kill them, the peace will come by itself. The main danger is that under the constant threat of annihilation by the Arabs, the Jews will become just like them and the streets of Jewish towns will have Israelis mimic those chants of the Arabs that we hear now, but against Arabs and Muslims. That would be the end of Israel and Jews, and the fanatics would win, even if the Jewish state still existed.
You need to know history of the conflict and put it into regional perspective, in order to understand the situation and derive proper, unbiased judgements.
Go again to Israel and study to see the symmetry. If you can go to Gaza and the West Bank and tall Hamas and Arab street masses in Ramallah that you want peace with Israel and that they should stop teaching their children that their future is in suicide martyrdom, and stay alive after that, maybe there is a chance for peace. Also meet with 40% of oriental Jews who left large lands and other property in Arab countries and ask them how safe they feel if the Palestinian state was proclaimed before Hamas and Hetzbollah renounce violence (at least on paper as PA did).
Posted by Vlasta Molak on 02/16/2009 @ 07:32PM PT
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