Southern Sudan: To Secede or Not to Secede?

by Daniel J Gerstle

Published November 05, 2009 @ 09:39AM PT

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Let's say, just posing a hypothetical here, that the Sudanese government led by President Omar al-Bashir was giving preferential treatment to the largely Arab and northern elite at the cost of southerners and Darfuris. But let's also say that after decades of war, the Bashir government were to give in and fulfill its promise in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement to allow a referendum on southern independence in 2011. Two humongous questions:

First, would the Southern Sudanese, given a fair referendum in all the areas governed by the SPLA-led southern government, vote to become a separate sovereign nations? According to First Vice President of Sudan Salva Kiir and a number of other southern leaders this week: Hell yeah! Considering the region gave thousands of sons to the fight for independence from the north and lost hundreds of thousands of acres of farmable land to landmines while the north has done little to woo the population back save hold conferences and sign UN documents, then even the most naive onlookers would guess that the vote will come up, yes. The north has less than two years to turn magically into a fledgling fair trade democracy or, contrastingly, to defy the international community and break the promise of a timely referendum. (Okay, maybe the latter is more likely.)

If the vote went ahead, would an independent Southern Sudan fair better as a nation without the north? All those who voted yes above, as well as many global human rights advocates and aid workers will probably shout an enthusiastic yes. But here's the pickle. The central regions located between the north and south including Abyei, Southern Kordofan, and the Blue Nile are still unstable while resting on disputed oil fields. And the minority tribes allegedly allied to the north who live in the south still tend to hold vendettas against their southern-allied neighbors, this is within Malakal, Jonglei, and elsewhere. So if, hypothetically, the south becomes independent, the defining of the border and oil field divisions will be an extremely delicate, if not bloody decades-long process. Egad. Best place to follow Southern Sudan news is the Sudan Tribune.

Do you think the Bashir Administration (which includes southern First President Kiir) allow the referendum to go ahead? And if this happened and the vote was yes do you think the Three Areas disputes can be settled peacefully?

[Photo: Juba, Stein Ove Korneliussen]