Statistics, Israel, Palestine
Published October 04, 2008 @ 02:27PM PT
When thinking about ways to quantify the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or the Middle East, what numbers should we be looking at, and what kind of story would they tell?
In the Middle East, the most commonly mis-used facts are historical, rather than statistical. This leads to a bit of strangeness now and then. How many Palestinians were turned into refugees as a result of the 1947-9 Arab-Israeli War? 650,000 or 790,000? Excuse me, but why is this important?
The most abused statistics I can find are usually trying to quantify how awful the other side is. Number of terrorist attacks committed by Palestinians against Israelis seem to show that the Palestinians really love attacking those Jews. Of course, I could stick up some nice numbers from the other side: number of Palestinian children killed by Israelis. The numbers simply are folks, but the context is a battleground.
On one side we have dozens of human rights groups in Israel, Palestine and elsewhere with statistics on Israeli violations. Number of Palestinian:
- Prisoners held by Israel without being charged? (691)
- Children killed by Israelis 2000-2007? (949)
- Civilians killed by Israelis, known to be innocent bystanders, 2000-2007? (2222)
- Homes demolished in the Occupied Territories since 1967? (18,000)
And so on. The Israeli foreign ministry and assorted pro-Israel entities will be quick to release their own set of statistics.
- How many suicide bombers have attacked Israelis from 2000-2007? (165)
- How many Israeli victims of Palestinian terrorism from 2000-2007 (1067)
- How many terrorist attacks in 2007? (2946)
- How many Arab states (21) and how many Jewish states? (1)
- How many Arabs (325 million) and how many Israeli Jews? (5.4 million)
To use these statistics most successfully, it’s important to present them without other kinds of information that might distract one from drawing the proper conclusion. Dead Palestinian babies? The Israelis are bad. Number of suicide bombings? The Palestinians are bad. Human rights violations? Those awful Israelis! Percentage supporting ‘armed struggle’ in the West Bank & Gaza? (49.5%) Those bloodthirsty Palestinians! And on it goes.
My conclusion at this point is that ‘facts’ aren’t nearly as important to our understanding as ‘narratives.’ ‘Just the facts, ma’am’ is often a way of directing attention to one’s frame of choice. For example, many of us ‘know’ that Israel fought its war of independence against superior Arab armies. Seven countries declared war on the infant state, hoping to crush it, but Israel prevailed. Sure, a miracle proving that God is on Israel’s side.
Armed forces in May 1947
|
Yishuv |
40,000+ |
|
Arab Armies |
23,000 |
|
Palestinians |
Less than 10,000 |
Arab and Israeli casualties 1947-49
|
Yishuv |
6,373 |
|
Arabs |
10,000 – 15,000 |
Villages de-populated 1947-1949
|
Yishuv/Israel |
17 |
|
Palestinians |
422 |
Source: Benny Morris
Or maybe not. With the outbreak of war, Israel’s armed forces were better trained and more numerous than those of the Arabs. This is true even taking all the Arab armies into account, and horrifically true when looking at the strength of the Palestinian community. The Arab League declared at the time that their mission was to prevent the expulsion of the Palestinians. Given what historians have uncovered about the creation of the Palestinian refugee problem, this comes across as a perfectly reasonable goal.
Or maybe not. Because some other Arab leaders talked in graphic terms about killing Jews and throwing them into the sea, one can at least talk about mixed motives. If the goal of preventing the expulsion of Palestinians was connected strategically with preventing strangling the infant state, an argument can be made that the Arabs brought the disaster upon themselves.
Statistics in and of themselves do not assign blame or give context, and someone claiming otherwise usually has an agenda. I try not to rely on statistics to my own case, although I do have an agenda: to open hearts. The fact is both Israelis and Palestinians are suffering. They don’t seem able to resolve this conflict on their own. They need our help. Won’t you help?
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Comments (5)
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The typical Israeli narrative -- that it was defending itself against attack by Arab armies -- neglects to point out that the Arab armies did not get involved until Israel had already destroyed hundreds of Palestinian villages during five months of ethnic cleansing. Refugees were pouring into neighboring Arab countries and telling of the massacres, rapes, and terror inflicted by the Zionist militia, and the Arab leaders were under pressure to respond.
A telling statistic that illustrates the current situation: in 2007, during which Hamas abided by a unilateral cease fire, no Israeli children were killed by Palestinians; meanwhile, Israeli soldiers and "settlers" killed 60 Palestinian children (www.rememberthesechildren.org)
Another important statistic is the amount of Palestinian land stolen by the Israel government. After all, that is what the conflict is about -- the theft of land from the weak by the powerful.
Posted by John Crane on 12/20/2008 @ 09:33AM PT
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good points, John. What is the relevance of showing number of Arabs living in 22 countries vs. the number of Israelis living in one country? 1:22 ratio tells me that the 'one' needs to find out how to live peacefully with their neighbors not the other way around. "When in Rome, do as the Romans do."
Israel supporters justify all the actions by playing the "victim" role and never admit to any wrongs. There are currently 3.5 million Palestinians. They have home made rockets, Israel has nuclear weapons and high tech weapons. Take a picture of a home in Gaza vs. a home in Israel to show the different standard of life.If you want to see change, it is time to stop looking back at 1948 and start looking at today's situation. Palestinians are living in poverty and substandard conditions. There is no justification for Israel's authority over their lives. What will be done to rebuild Palestinians' homes and allow them a decent life?
Posted by Mary Richards on 02/09/2009 @ 04:55AM PT
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The "depopulation" of Arab Palestinians after the UN declaration for the Partition of Palestine into predominantly Jewish area (Israel) and predominantly Arab area (Jordan) is mostly due to the promise that Arab armies of surrounding countries (Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan) made to Palestinian Arabs that they will return victoriously after all the Jews are killed and pushed into the Mediterranean sea. With few exceptions of Jewish extremists, the 600,000 Palestinian Arabs fled because they were expecting rewards of loot upon their return to newly recognized Israel and because they also knew how Arab armies treated their enemies, and expected the Jews to do the same (cut their throats). There were many stories of of Palestinian Arab friendships with their Jewish neighbors, and other Palestinian Arabs massacring their brothers for "collaboration" with the Jews. At the same time, more than equal number of Arab Jews (750,000) fled or were kicked out of many Arab countries as undesirables, leaving all their property there. The only difference was that Arab Jews were welcomed in the new state of Israel, while the Palestinian Arabs who left their homes in Israel were kept in refugee camps, where they are even now. UN in most cases helps refugees of war around the world, but usually until they settle in their new countries, but in the case of Palestinian Arabs they have unfortunately turned them into "professional" refugees, with the highest birth-rate in the world. The problem is now 7 million Palestinian Arabs (and many millions of Palestinian Arabs who became Jordanians), some of them, the ones from the West Bank and many are descendants of original Palestinian Arab refugees from 60 years ago.
The 1956 and 1967 wars were different since by then Israel did learn war again (after 18 centuries of being slaughtered and defenseless in other countries). Arab armies from Syria, Jordan and Egypt again tried to destroy Israel, but this time Israel was ready and in 6-days of 1967 war had pushed them out and in the process took over Gaza, Sinai (which were previously Jordan), East Jerusalem and the West Bank (which were under Jordanian control since 1948 partition of Palestine.
With Egypt, whose courageous President Saddat paid with his life for wanting peace with Israel, after Egypt lost yet another war with Israel in 1973, Israel have been in peace since 1979 (with ambassadors and cooperation). Israel returned Sinai again (as it did in 1956), but Egypt did not WANT Gaza, since the Palestinian Arabs were considered too radicalized and prone to extremism. Same happened with Jordan, which had rather troubling experience with PLO, before King kicked Arafat out (and PLO ended in Lebanon, causing civil war there). later, PLO decided to make peace with Israel (Oslo accord), but its terrorist activities were taken over by Ham-as and Hezbollah.
It would be best to forget all this history and work on creating a Palestinian state in Gaza and West Bank, while making sure that that the Palestinian Arab population of that state will never again threaten the very existence of Israel, as it has been in the past. Israel is there to stay. Just as Jews who fled Arab countries and/or their decedents will never again return to those countries, Palestinian Arabs who left Israel in 1948 cannot be expected to return to 1948 situation before the war for extermination of the newly independent Israel was staged. It was a fair exchange of populations and wealth. If anything, Jews got a shorter shrift, since many of them were rather rich in Arab countries and there was a lot of property they had to leave behind ;-)!
The settlers in the West Bank are a small number of mostly American Jews, and they can stay as the new Jews in the Palestinian state, as long as they are not killed or molested as it is customary to do with Jews in many Arab and/or Muslim countries, which are using Israel and Palestinians as an excuse for their opression over their own populations, and support of extremists. Since 20% of Israel population are Palestinian Arabs, there is no reason why Palestinian state could not have 1% of Jews in its territory, that could be treated by the Palsestinian government as well as the Israeli Arabs are treated in Israel
Posted by Vlasta Molak on 02/14/2009 @ 10:38AM PT
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correction:
Gaza and Sinai were a part of Egypt from 1948 til 1967, with a brief exception after 1956 war, when Israel occupied it briefly before returning it to Egypt for peace (that lasted 9 years). After the 1956 war that was started and lost by Egypt, the UN troops were stationed in Sinai on the border of Negev (in Israel) to insure the safety of Israel. However, in 1967 Nasser ordered the UN troops to leave Sinai, and was giving bellicose speeches swearing to destroy Israel and push all the Jews into the sea. The Israel showed him otherwise, except that the Palestinians were not pushed anywhere and they stayed living in Gaza strip and the West bank under Israeli governors, until Intifada and subsequent Oslo agreement, which was violated numerous times by the leaders of Palestinian Arabs in those areas. Since 1967 their population almost quadrupled, since they are good in making babies (similar to what happened when there were blackouts in New York city in 1977 and 2006) ;-)! As a result, the current population of Gaza is over 50% under 14 years of age and over 75% are under the age of 28.
Israeli government is not an angel, and they have done some really idiotic things to the families of suicide bombers (demolishing their houses) and in such a way created more dissatisfied youth, eager to become martyrs by killing the Jews by suicide/homocide bombing. The Wall along the West bank (strategically positioned to prevent intrustions from the West Bank) and the checkpoints within the West Bank started as a result of the Palestinian Arab terrorists' attacks in restaurants and buses of Israel.
Naturally, those checkpoints are an obstacle to normal life in the West Bank, and some of the settlers are obnoxious to poor farmers there, but do not mix causes and consequences. The Palestinian state will resolve all those problems, but the Arab world needs to recognize their role in creating this problem, just as many peacenicks in Israel and Jews around the world, do not always agree with the Israeli government policies, including such a famous Jew as Noam Chomsky and Avi Uvnery.
There are very few peacenicks in the Arab world who recognize the Arabs' contribution to the problem and demonstrated against their government when they were attacking Israel in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973 or against many terrorist attacks against Israel (remember Munich 1972)! If they did, they probably would not live long, since the Arab (and other Muslim) extremists do not have many humanitarian concerns about killing their own people. Even in democratic Europe they are the trouble makers in countries that have given them education and an opportunity to make a living (just remember the 20 guys who flew to the World Trade Center and Pentagon, or the ones who bombed train in Spain or Tube in London).
Israel and Palestinians are a convenient excuse for those knuckle heads who prefer death to life (as Bin Ladin and other of extremist Muslim leaders said numerous times, and as kids in Gaza and West bank to some extent are taught). The extremists are especially good in recruiting dissatisfied Muslim youth and sending them to their death in Jews-killing assignments, while they themselves sit in their hotels and mansions in Afghanistan, Pakistan and/or Middle Eastern countries.
Posted by Vlasta Molak on 02/14/2009 @ 11:15AM PT
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To Author:
A really great and insightful article. Although I don't really agree with this very balanced perspective of both sides, I couldn't describe better this statistics/narrative war. Of course Israelis and Palestinians should focus on the future not the past, but every solution to the confict needs recognition of suffering which Plestinians never got. As a former observer in Hebron I still deal with trying not to blame one side more.
Posted by Gosia J on 08/04/2009 @ 08:41AM PT
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