Would NATO Withdrawal from Afghanistan Promote Peace, or Catastrophe?

by Daniel J Gerstle

Published November 09, 2009 @ 06:59PM PT

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Over the past couple weeks, I've been reading and corresponding with people who have scrolls of wonderfully colorful criticism about the NATO role in Afghanistan, but few of us have been able then also to recommend a practical strategy which improves upon those options considered by the Obama Administration.

"Jobs for Afghans," a plan posed on a previous post by Ralph Lopez, aims for the Afghan government to win over those who fight for the Taliban for income by having the Afghan government outbid the insurgents and build respectful positions for those who change sides. It's one of the best options brought up here, already something NATO has considered in various forms, but it is only one part of a strategy.

One of the most inspirational voices among progressives these days is Malalai Joya, who was the youngest person ever elected and one of the few women in the Afghan parliament. One of her recent speeches is posted here on a progressive online magazine called, The Mantle.

We can celebrate Ms. Joya, agree with her criticisms that the US-led war to prop up the Karzai Administration has led not to a quelling of the Talaban and Al Qaeda threats and an enhancement of democratic values but to much of the opposite. We can shudder at the thought that NATO aerial bombardments have killed civilians, that continued fighting has destroyed too many communities, and that such mistakes are simply fueling retaliatory violence.

But this criticism, as well as calls for NATO withdrawal, does not necessarily present a path forward for Afghans. Once NATO leaves, the Karzai government will remain without a watchdog, with weakened security, and without funding. There would be an enormous, lawless vacuum. If the current government toppled, what would replace it? How violent would that fight be?

Given my few trips to Afghanistan and decade and a half following the conflict and humanitarian situation, I argue that government corruption, violence involving civilians, rights violations, hunger, and extremism will get even worse if the US and/or NATO were to withdraw before achieving some rule of law in the major cities. If the Taliban wins, Al Qaeda will be back in business full-time and the new middle class as well as women leaders and teachers will be flooding out of the country. Al Qaeda, strengthened by the apparent win and the return to free passage, will be a bigger threat than before.

The best option I have found for Afghanistan which may prevent both a prolonged war and a Taliban win begins with--though it has become almost cliche by now among cautious activists--a renewal of the Afghan Loya Jirga traditional grand council. The Loya Jirga is kind of a mega-parliament. It would ideally be funded by Japan and Scandinavia to reduce suspicion about external manipulation.

Although it's members may include many troublesome rights-violators, it is the only major forum for addressing issues that all parties can agree on and it is the least vulnerable to external manipulation. (See Ansar Rahel and Jon Krakauer, as well as numerous others) The exception is only that the bloodline King will be shunned by Islamists.

In the Loya Jirga, Afghan leaders could debate and vote on how to address the recent and following election scandal without it being pushed by Western advisers. The outcome would not be a Western democracy, but it would be a less risky option than abandoning Kabul or allowing a Taliban win. If the Afghan Army was re-conceptualized as a force for the central Loya Jirga, with Karzai serving as a slightly less powerful President, perhaps its soldiers and enemies would no longer see it so much as an arm of the Pentagon.

Some may see this as "Afghanization" of the conflict, but it is certainly better than escalation. And its certainly better than a collapse of the government which would likely invite the Taliban and Al Qaeda to take over and - as they have publicized they will do - destroy the enhanced educational, women's, technological, and market institutions the Afghans and allies have already spilled so much blood trying to build.

[Photo by US Army, Afghanistan.]