War and Peace

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Counting the Recent Dead in Darfur

Published September 17, 2009 @ 08:23PM PT

Alex de Waal at the blog Making Sense of Darfur has compiled all the incidents reported by UNAMID, UN agencies, NGOs and the Sudanese Government, to track violent fatalities. There were fifty violent fatalities across Darfur in August, including civilians, rebels, and government forces.

The relatively low number of casualties is not to say that Darfur has suddenly emerged, phoenix-like, from the conflict. The situation remains incredibly grim, especially for those trapped in the camps.

[Photo of Darfur from Nite_Owl's photostream on flickr - Creative Commons, Attribution]

Counting the Dead in Darfur

Published June 26, 2009 @ 05:05PM PT

Sidestepping the entire "is it still genocide" debate - only slightly less enjoyable than the never-ending "was it ever genocide" discussion - it might be useful to take a look at some of the more recent numbers.

Alex de Waal on the Making Sense of Darfur blog offers a running tally of deaths due to violence in Darfur. The numbers so far this year are as follows:

January: 183
February: 102
March: 121
April: 22
May: 99

His analysis of the figures is fascinating.  According to de Waal:

"Arab militia attacks on civilians have not been a feature of the war in Darfur for the last fourteen months, and the fighting and burning in the northern parts of west Darfur, during the JEM offensives of February 2008, were in fact the only occasions in which the militia have been active against non-Arab civilians on a significant scale since 2006.

...

It is also striking that in meetings with representatives of almost all communities across Darfur, including the vast majority of IDP camps, over the last two months, very few representatives have raised recent incidents of lethal violence. For Darfurians, it is fair to say, the issue today is not killing."

It's also well-worth reading the response by Eric Reeves, who questions the accuracy of the mortality figures, and in particular the fact that they don't cover deaths due to the "consequences of violent displacement" - i.e. those who have died in the camps for lack of services, etc.

According to Reeves: "We simply don’t have adequate data with which to estimate mortality from violence, let alone all causes."

As the man once said: lies, damn lies and statistics.

Finally, as always, please see my genocide co-blogger Michele for daily updates on the situation in Darfur.

[Photo by Lynsey Addario at www.eyesondarfur.org]

And, It Wouldn't Be a Weekend Without Darfur

Published April 26, 2009 @ 08:16PM PT

As for recent Darfur news and rumors:

- A fascinating IRIN article describes how some of the expelled NGOs are now publicly accusing the Sudanese Government of extortion:

"'They asked us to pay an exorbitant amount of money... [and said]: ‘We have your passports. Once you agree to pay, you can leave the country’,”' said Jane Coyne, head of mission for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)-France, one of 13 aid agencies ordered to leave Sudan for their alleged provision of information to the International Criminal Court.

The Government pressured NGOs by confiscating staff passports and refusing to allow them to leave, while also stoking popular anger.  According to the article:

"Most of the expelled NGOs have agreed to the government’s demands so as to ensure their staff could leave Sudan and to avoid potential detention or physical attack by members of the public."

One particular source of concern was the demand by the Sudanese Government that the expelled aid agencies pay their local staff six months of severance pay, although local labor law only requires a month of severance.  As one aid worker explained:

"The word I like to use is extortion…That’s all money that at the end of the day has to come from donors that would have otherwise gone for programmes in Darfur."

- And, just to make matters that much more confusing - talks are still apparently ongoing about allowing some of the expelled NGOs to return.  As John Norris reported last week on the Enough blog:

"This picture seems to be shaping up as this: Sudan will allow some of the aid groups back if they are ‘rehatted’ under different names. It also seems clear that some of the 13 groups probably will not be allowed back at all. No timetable for any of this has been announced by the administration, aid groups, or the Government of Sudan."

- Finally, Alex de Waal has an interesting post on Making Sense of Darfur analyzing the Save Darfur movement in terms of American exceptionalism.

[Photo of Kalma Camp in Darfur from MSF]

Did NGOs in Darfur Pass Information to the ICC - Redux

Published March 24, 2009 @ 08:56AM PT

A follow through to last week's post, about whether NGOs in Darfur passed information to the International Criminal Court, as alleged by the Sudanese Government.

Granted, it's easy enough to ignore allegations by the Sudanese Government - their credibilty leaves a little something to be desired.  That said, a recent article in the Christian Science Monitor stirred the controversy further:

"According to Sudan expert Alex de Waal, program director at the New York-based Social Science Research Council, the ICC prosecutor publicly indicated that much of his information came from NGOs".

Yet the article seems to have misquoted de Waal - according to a clarification he issued over the weekend:

"I think the editorial process may also have truncated my remarks or placed them out of context.

In the early days of his investigations, Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo commented that he obtained information from the reports of human rights NGOs. Last December he also implied that Sudanese human rights activists were among his witnesses. But if he has ever said that he obtained evidence from international humanitarian NGOs working in the field in Darfur, I am not aware of it. To the contrary, I know that offered to issue a public statement that he was not cooperating with the NGOs."

Further, according an Al Jazeera report from yesterday: "Moreno-Ocampo said he had received no help or information from NGOs or UN agencies in his investigation."

(For more on the role of NGOs in ICC investigations more broadly, see here.)

Still, some have their doubts.  Ibrahim Adam, writing on the blog Making Sense of Darfur, states:

"There’s no smoke without fire. And in the case of claims of the politicisation of international humanitarian operations in Darfur, it’s a pretty big and, in fact, very visible fire."

He then goes on to say that "activists had/have infiltrated some international aid organisations working in Darfur...and provided informational and testimonial assistance to the ICC".  He also accuses NGOs of providing assistance to rebel groups.

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The Joys of Debating Darfur

Published March 09, 2009 @ 01:44PM PT

A quick round-up of some of the more interesting Darfur-related posts over the past few days:

- Julie Flint and Alex de Waal argue that, as between justice and peace in Darfur, peace must come first:

"International justice is a virtuous enterprise, but not risk-free. Sudanese people are already paying a high price for the abandonment of the diplomatic approach that has yielded such benefits over the last four years. We fear there is more to come: NGO expulsions, actions against UN staff members and, worst of all, a go-slow or reversal of commitment to elections and self-determination for Southern Sudan. There will be no justice in Sudan without peace. When peace and justice clash, as they do in Sudan today, peace must prevail."

- Alex de Waal also has words of advice for those arguing for an immediate response to Bashir's decision to expel 13 large NGOs:

"The response of the blog ‘Wronging Rights’ to the arrest warrant had it about right, “@)*&U#*()$&!!!!! Are you KIDDING ME?????) @*($)%&)%>>>>>>&*#^%*#&%^>.”

This pretty much sums up international policy too. Such incoherence, tinged with panic and righteous anger, is a terribly bad basis for taking irrevocable steps. Under other circumstances, the UN Secretary General and the Security Council would step in to calm things down and offer a face-saving formula for both sides. But there’s no obvious way to de-escalate this conflict–imagine the columnists’ response to the SG if he were brave enough to try (’coward’ and ‘appeaser’ would probably be the first adjectives used)."

(To which I would add - paging Nicholas Kristof.)

- Speaking of Wronging Rights:

"When something like an ICC warrant comes floating down into Sudan, it's not blind, impartial justice. It is an act of power, directed at one party to an ongoing conflict. If it takes full effect, and Bashir gets sent to the Hague, then it is a coup removing a leader from power. And while there are a lot of organizations that think that's a good idea (The Enough Project does, to judge from this detailed report), if that's what the international community is doing, shouldn't we acknowledge it? 'Ocampo deposes President' doesn't have quite the same ring to it as 'ICC issues arrest warrant.'"

- And, just to add a little excitement, I give you Kevin Heller of Opinio Juris, writing in response to my suggestion that the international community cut a deal with Bashir:

"Kleinman’s response to Michelle’s question [what would I do in Darfur] was a non-answer: she was asking him to explain his long-term solution for Darfur, not his short-term solution.  And his response was… silence.

That is an unacceptable position for someone who so savagely criticizes anyone who dares support the arrest warrant.  Does Kleinman really believe that this time — unlike all the others — Bashir will pursue peace and help the Darfuris if the international community leaves him alone?  If so, he should say so openly.  But if not — if he doesn’t believe that doing nothing is enough — I think it behooves him to (1) tell us what actions the international community should take instead of pursuing Bashir’s arrest, and (2) explain to us why those actions will be more likely to influence Bashir’s behavior.

I would be very curious to see Kleinman’s answers, especially to the second question...

In his attack on Kristof, Kleinman wrote that 'what’s delusional — if not dishonest — is the refusal to admit that perhaps [the arrest warrant] wouldn’t work.'  I would suggest that what is equally delusional, if not equally dishonest, is for Kleinman to refuse to admit that doing nothing won’t work, either."

A taste of my own medicine, as it were.  At the least, Heller raises a number of interesting points, to which I'll respond manyana.  Oh, the rumble, it continues.

- Finally, please check out my genocide co-blogger Michelle for detailed updates on what's happening on the ground, and behind the scenes.

[Photo of a boy in the Zam Zam IDP camp from AP / MSNBC]

Did NGOs in Darfur Pass Information to the ICC?

Published March 20, 2009 @ 12:44PM PT

[Post updated on March 22nd with a clarification from Alex de Waal]

A question which, depending on how you look at it, can be translated in one of two ways.

- Did NGOs in Darfur help support the cause of international justice, or

- Did NGOs in Darfur spy on the Sudanese Government, and therefore deserve to be expelled?

High stakes - not least because the Sudanese Government has justified its decision to expel NGOs on the grounds that they provided information to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

For instance, the Sudanese Government has stated that:

"[The International Rescue Committee] signed a memorandum of cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the year in 2005 to furnish information, documents and witnesses and to provide protection for witnesses in coordination with the United Nations Mission in Sudan."

It's easy enough to dismiss accusations from the Sudanese Government, which has a rather impressive track record when it comes to distorting the truth.  (Especially President "No rape took place in Darfur" Bashir.)  After all, accused war criminals are rarely noted for their honesty.

Further, President Bashir and other members of the government are hardly disinterested parties.

Yet according to  Alex de Waal of the Social Science Research Council, ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo himself has indicated that at least some of his information came from NGOs.

[N.B. - please see the clarification from Alex de Waal in the comments below, as well as this recent post by de Waal.]

For their part, aid agencies have vociferously denied the charge, stating that they had nothing to do with the ICC. 

Read More »

Why The Sudanese Government Does What It Does

Published March 16, 2009 @ 07:27PM PT

For those with masochistic tendencies, there are any number of ways to keep amused.  Trying to comprehend infinity.  Trying to calculate the end of pi.  Or, my personal favorite, trying to understand why the Sudanese Government does what it does.

Such as, say, crippling humanitarian operations in Darfur.

And, more recently, threatening to expel all international aid agencies within the year.  (In President Omar Bashir's own words: "We need to clear our country of any spies.")

As someone with a great deal of Sudan experience once told me, Sudanese leaders aren't guided by ideology so much as a simple, overwhelming desire to stay in power.  The only question that really matters is "what do I have to do to ensure that I stay in power today, and hopefully tomorrow".

Which at least provides some context for trying to understand President Omar Bashir's latest threats against NGOs.  As an excellent article by Heba Aly in the Christian Science Monitor explains:

"Getting rid of aid workers would help dissolve the dozens of camps in Darfur that house some 2.7 million people displaced by the conflict, who come for safety and humanitarian relief. The government says the camps are bastions of instability, where rebels are fed and housed and their weapons illegally harbored.

'The government still wants to win the war,' says Colin Thomas-Jensen, policy adviser, at the Washington-based Enough project, which aims to prevent genocide. 'They want to make the humanitarian situation go away.'

By decreasing the level of aid in the camps, he says, the government will force people to leave, removing threats to its security and reducing rebel recruitment grounds. Driving out aid workers would also ensure that no one was around to watch if violence broke out."

Or, as Alex de Waal recently summed up the situation: "By expelling NGOs, you remove the main witnesses of whatever happens."

[Sudanese President Omar Bashir and his ever-handy cane - Photo from AP]

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